Custom Search

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 June 2013

NYSE internals: 95% down volume ratio and 95% decliners versus advancers. NASDAQ averaged 89% and 84% respectively. Some ugly internals all-around.

Trendline and horizontal support broken solidly on heavy volume.
The up channel was solidly breached. Wave [iii] down looks like a good count at the moment. Previous wave 4 (1536 SPX) is a wave [iii] target for starters. One can see the support and pivot at the spot. 
Squiggle count. Big gap down. Breakaway gap that doesn't fill? We'll see what quad witching brings tomorrow.  Could get an oversold bounce but as EWI has been pointing out lately, NYSE TRIN closed below 1 today (.93) which could indicate that buying power was expended in trying to stop the decline.  Yet the DJIA was down 350+ anyway.  Overall thats not a great sign of a near or medium term bottom. 
Intraday it may bounce in a wave (ii) of [iii] due to extreme rate of change in volatility but again, things are getting interesting.
Treasuries are selling also. This was predicted that both stocks and bonds would sell in cycle wave c (and the dollar being the sole benefactor). Its early in the decline of proposed cycle wave c yet  heavy selling in bonds and stocks has occurred already.
Tonight's AAII bullish ratio via Sentiment Trader:

Hardly a washout in bearish sentiment although today's numbers were not factored.
And the "smart money" index hasn't yet broken its downtrend which usually occurs before prices turn up.
Stock/Bond ratio as of today:

blog comments powered by Disqus