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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 June 2013

Just one chart tonight is sufficient. The beauty of EW Theory is that it is a logical theory when all is said and done. You can almost break down the wave counts in a series of "if - then" logic statements.  This approach allows us to take some of the emotion out of analysis which is best.

Wave counts have rules and strong guidelines.  A 5 wave move is an impulse and a 3 wave move is corrective (to the next degree higher trend). So far since the 1687 top, we have what appears to be a 3 wave corrective so far. However...

The beauty of this logic is that if this decline morphs into what we think will be a significant wave down (and hence a historic top had been made), then this apparent 3 wave corrective (so far) must be a series of 1's and 2's waves down. Which also implies the market has not yet seen wave (iii) of [iii]. This is EW theory in a nutshell. Either it is to be, or isn't.

With that said the market's underlying technical's and fundamentals have "changed" significantly since any correction since the 4 year rally.  Credit markets are stressing (China) and bond markets are taking a hit. The dollar still refuses to be a whipping boy of the Federal Reserve and is stealthily gaining strength. Just as bonds have now suddenly garnered everyone's attention, the next panic selling should see the dollar come to the forefront of investor's attention.

This daily chart shows the wave structure. Is there a backtest coming to close the gap down from last week?  It could happen and it would fit nicely into the bearish count. Its doesn't have to happen of course but we all know gaps that size tend to be filled or at least challenged.
Good luck with any short term trades, being a bear is never easy in a bear market of cycle degree.

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