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Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 July 2013

The last few days of price action seems to confirm the overall count of a leading expanding diagonal triangle.

Wave (b) may have seen its price low in either the form of an upward running flat or a contracting running triangle. They both are quite similar at this stage so its a moot point.
An interesting study using Real Clear Politics poll average for President Obama's approval disapproval ratings average. This is an example of how real time sentiment data directly correlates to stock market wave counts.  I don't take into account Obama's 1st year in office as that is considered a "honeymoon". So looking at the data at about January 2010 is a fair assessment start point.

What is interesting is that there is a major divergence occurring in the approval/disapproval since December 2012 when the "spread" between approval and disapproval was at its greatest. The spread has been deteriorating ever since and has gone negative even though the stock market is not too far off its May 22 all-time high.  In other words one or the other should catch up - either the stock market needs to go down sharply to reflect current disapproval ratings or the President's ratings needs to shoot up significantly (or a combination of the 2).

The bottom line is there is a very large divergence between actual current sentiment and stock prices.
BPSPX is still very much in long-term oversold territory.
Another example of a glaring long-running divergence is the "Smart Money Index" via Sentiment Trader.

In a nutshell, was this chart is saying is that the market has been selling heavily and consistently into "strength" for 1 year solid.  Or from "strong hands to weak".

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