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Monday, July 8, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 July 2013

Elliott Wave International's always excellent Steve Hochberg is concerned for the overall bearish count particularly since his primary count is a series of [i]-[ii], (i) - (ii) down.  This count does not allow prices to rise above 1654.19 SPX (his current wave (ii) peak).  He stated that if prices do rise above 1654 SPX, then the overall "correction" since the 1684 high may be a bigger wave 4 event of some kind which implies prices will rise above to new all-time highs eventually.

However since this blog switched squiggle counts to the leading expanding diagonal triangle count, our count allows for prices to rise above 1654.19 SPX.  In fact is is anticipated that prices reach the overall Fibonacci retrace of 78.6% which is about 1661 SPX.

My opinion is that having a somewhat "neutral" outlook is the wrong stance to have at this key juncture.  My take is that the market will turn down hard in minute [iii] soon enough, so a continued medium term bearish stance is appropriate here. I'm merely awaiting the squiggle count to finish out. Of course Hochberg may be correct. These "leading diagonal" counts have never seemed to pan out. But that's because the market was continuing toward new highs since 2009.  The "logic" of EW theory is simple though: Either cycle wave b ended at the 1684 high or didn't. My take is that cycle wave b did end and the wave count supports that notion.

It is apparent that the retrace since the 1560 low seems to be correcting the entire decline in some fashion.  The time interval is about right. If it takes some 5 weeks to decline, 3 weeks correcting would be ideal. In any case, what matters is wave structure. And currently the rebound since 1560 low counts solidly as a very sharp (a)-(b)-(c) "three".
Squiggles are "on target" for wave (c) of [ii].

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