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Friday, October 11, 2013

E-minis

Republicans started their "Gettysburg" moment stumbling into a big fight with the Democrats and President Obama at the end of a long downtrend in social mood as reflected in Obama's average tracking poll numbers which have been channeling down for over 9 months. At the bottom is when the Republicans were finally "comfortable" in the lousy poll numbers that they went headlong into this fight. But guess what? Obama was due for a bounce! And bounce is what he is getting. Its not external events controlling mood, its just the opposite. If only Republicans understood social mood waves. Click on the RCP "Presidential Approval" link embedded in the chart below to get a better view of the down channel in approval ratings that was technically ripe for a bounce. Poor Republicans. They had every advantage, but social mood timing couldn't have been worse. Had they done this near the middle of the long down channel, they would be likely in better shape and more on message. But they were not in control of the timing of social mood waves. And they will misunderstand the loss of the battle loss as a result of events not the dumb luck of mood waves. That's too bad. Maybe the mood bounce will be short-lived and they will regain the advantage. I do not have a crystal ball but the Republicans will likely break if they cannot weather the bounce.
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