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Thursday, October 10, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 October 2013 [Update 11:13PM]

[Update:11:05 PM: If prices on the 5 minute Wilshire squiggle count (see middle chart of original post below) pass above wave (ii) - or even wave a of (ii) - then its likely the market makes new highs yet again. The reason is that the decline counts best as three waves down so far. It is not an impulse as of now so it really can only be a series of 1's and 2's for a bearish count.  And if it is not a series of one's and two's, then new market highs need to be accounted for. (such is EW logic of counting)

If that would be the case, the next best count (perhaps) is that Minor 5 of (C) of [Y] has not yet finished and will trace a (maddening) EW contracting triangle bearish wedge.  The Wilshire 5000 2-hour chart below is what that could look like. Time and price-wise would coincide with the last chart (Wilshire 5000 weekly) in this post -with a mid to late November time frame for topping.
Today was a key marker day. A close beneath yesterday's closing price of 1656.40 would likely signal a significant price drop to come.

Squiggle count implies today's mighty rally will reverse completely.
Wilshire weekly. If the market wants to continue making all-time highs, it would still look like a bearish wedge pattern. This chart shows where equal time and price between waves [W] and [Y] would be using price high within wave [X] versus the orthodox top of [W] which I have been showing on the SPX weekly.

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