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Friday, October 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 October 2013

Republicans launched Pickett's Charge so to speak in their "Gettysburg" battle versus President Obama and the Democrats.  And like the outcome of so long ago, they got (are getting) slaughtered, limping off the field, and hope they can maintain their army to fight another day....

That's the general sentiment if you read the talking heads consensus and what the Republicans themselves are saying. What happened in so short a time? Was it not just a bit more than a week ago that they voted unanimously to shutdown the government over Obamacare?

My thesis here is that they launched this attack at the end of a long decline in a down channeling social mood versus President Obama. You can see here on Real Clear Politics polling the down channel since the post-election bounce (December 2012) is ready to be breached in a bounce upward in favor of Obama.

It was no coincidence they committed to their Gettysburg battle at the end of a long downturn in social mood.  They felt confident in the trend.   

This is unfortunate yet proof of how social mood dictates the news and not the other way around.  They had everything going for them. The disastrous rollout of Obamacare. They had bad optics of the National Park Service acting as a Gestapo. They had an intransient Obama declaring he will never negotiate.  They had Harry Reid as the face of the opposition party. They have a majority of Americans that does not want the debt ceiling raised. They had a simple message that they somehow let slip through their fingers that even Jon Stewart hammered HHS Secreteary Sebelius on: Why the Obamacare corporate waver and not the individual mandate?  

They bungled a simple message they could have hammered home to America - Why do individuals have to pay  - on a system that is broken no less! - when corporations are completely excused?

They had all this going for them and yet they seemingly are bungling it so badly.  Why? Social mood waves give us a clue.  They bungled it because they reacted to a change in social mood from a long 9 month downtrend for the President to a slight uptick. They "shorted" President Obama at a likely Intermediate term mood "bottom" and now are feeling the squeeze.  Again that's unfortunate because in the long run, the waves will probably favor the Republicans efforts once this uptick bounce is over. They are showing "weak hands". Social mood is struggling to stay afloat. It may be due for a bounce for Obama and such, but the odds are that things are not going to get better long term mood-wise.

Healthcare is going to be broken for a lot of Americans and a long term mood slide will eventually amplify this to the negative for the President.  Yet the Republican party does not have a Socionomics consultant. If they had a team of such individuals, and heeded their advice, they may have had a different message thereby mitigating and focusing any damage they were to take.

Americans still heavily favor against spending more money. Enormous debt loads make people feel uncomfortable. Its a natural turn of events after blowing such a huge credit bubble. That's why I am a very confident this gargantuan historic credit bubble will collapse. I cannot wish it so, only social mood can make it happen. It has taken 40 years to build this bubble and it didn't rollover in a flash. Its rounding at the top like a slowing train before it can go into reverse. But reverse it surely will. 

The budget fights are not going to go away.  The FED will not likely inflate much past $4-$5 Trillion versus a still-leveraged credit market of some many, many times multiple tens or hundreds of trillions nor derivatives in the many hundreds of trillions.  They too will feel the mood influence and already are. It is an inevitable as the march of time.

Only when mood sinks to its very lowest of lows will we say the "darkest is before the dawn". Are we there yet? I hardly think so. You know it and I know. We feel it. Everyone feels it. There is a dark journey to be made and no one wants to take that journey. I don't blame them. We fight it with all our might. We sense that it will not go well yet we cannot replicate the "good" time of the rising mood of the 1980's and 1990's even though The FED is desperately trying to.  All we can do is try and tread water and we know it is not working. Something has to give. It is inevitable as the setting sun.

Where are we in the wave pattern? Well, even if the market makes a new high (certainly not assured by any means), we can still say this: The big rally from 2009 is still a giant "three" pattern and is still likely in some kind of price/time ratio that makes for a lovely synergy:

And yes we are wedging.

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