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Monday, October 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 October 2013

SPX weekly is approaching an important lower channel line. It would be a good place for yet another bounce if that's the case.
However, if wave (ii) has ended in a downward flat, we are in wave (iii) down which implies the market is getting near a "point of recognition".
Time and long-term negative trending social mood has gotten us where we are today: grappling with the huge debt loads of not only the US but the entire world.  The march toward deflation is occurring no matter what the FED does. $85B/month is simply dwarfed by the $60T-70T total debt market.

Negative social mood has finally crept into Congress. A fiscal fight like this is a sure sign.  Its not about to return to "normal".  Sure we may get a deal, but something will be cut.  And that would be deflationary.

And the risk of upsetting the "system" which has become so complex and intertwined, that even merely a mild financial heart attack could be a mortal wound to the modern financial and economic system of the world. Indeed that is what cycle wave c of Supercycle (A) predicts.

This article nicely summarizes what the political parties have seemed to stumbled into is a "Gettysburg" moment.  It wasn't completely planned, but neither side is backing down and both sides were itching for a major fight.  Both sides have scrapped a bit and bloodied each other and are now maneuvering for the major battles to come. Well its here, and I don't think anyone has a real clue on how its going to play out any more than they did at the real Battle of Gettysburg.  

And make no mistake, Americans want this fight, despite what you might hear on TV or some bullshit poll. The left was always willing to take the fight to the limit. The difference now is the right is willing to also. The squishy "middle" is caught in between but they are part of the problem anyway. We get the government we deserve. We are a nation right now with declining long term mood. This fight was going to happen either way.  EW theory predicts the polarizing and fracturing of society in a declining social mood environment. The fact that it has finally crept into our Congress is no mistake, its proof of the theory in action.
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