The primary count is that cycle wave b has topped and the opening stages of cycle wave c are beginning to unfold. Cycle wave c of Supercyle wave (a) is projected to consist of 5 primary waves down - a giant impulse pattern. These waves should take prices well below the 2009 lows and devastate the world economically.
The alternate count is that Minor 5 of (C) of [Y] of cycle b has not yet topped.
At what price point would confirm Minor 5 is likely over? In my estimation, Wilshire 18,409 (see purple arrow on chart below). Its at this point where price overlaps with key subwaves and would likely break free out of the lower intermediate channel line (red).
We have good technical evidence that this is the area prices are headed toward. The broken neckline on our head and shoulders topping pattern was backtested and rejected, so the path of least resistance for the next few days may very well be down. The minimum downside target for this pattern is the horizontal pivot support at 18,539. Oftentimes these minimum targets get overshot by a wider margin.