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Friday, December 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 December 2013

UPDATE:
Elliott Wave International is offering an Elliott Wave Theorist Newsletter FREE published by Robert Prechter.

< --------------CLICK THE EWI LINK TO THE LEFT

Just click on the EWI ad link to the left and signup as a FREE "Club EWI Member".  Its no gimmick, its really free with no strings attached. If you signup through my EWI link (I am an affiliate) I get $3 for every EWI free "Club Member" subscription.  Then should you ever choose to buy one of their products (newletters, books, etc.) I will get a commission $$ for every product you buy.  I certainly appreciate it!

EWI really is a no frills website and being a FREE EWI club member truly does mean you get FREE articles and stuff. There is no worry you are getting scammed. They just don't do that.

I myself have subscribed to 4 newsletters for many years now; EW Theorist (monthly), Short Term Update (3 times a week), The Financial Forecast (monthly), and The Socionomic (monthly).  I recommend all four for those interested in Elliott Wave Theory.

Thanks again!

ORIGINAL POST:
I talked recently about what lower price level has to occur before we could conclusively determine that cycle wave b was over.  Lets look at that from a slightly different perspective. We'll look at it in terms of breadth, or more precisely, a reversal of breadth.

This chart shown 2 nights ago displays how breadth on the NYSE is lower then it was at the May 2013 high. This is a confirmation that momentum has slowed significantly since the 2009 low.  We would expect that to occur near a historic top.

Looking at the NYAD weekly, the tight channel would have to break for us to say cycle wave b is over. Of course I am predicting that is what will happen over the course of the next few weeks/month based on the wave counts. We have a ways to go though.

Yes there was a weaker Zweig Breadth Thrust that triggered on 18 October. And it has sustained the market since.  A close beneath the ZBT firing range (1646 SPX - see horizontal line) pivot would also likely confirm cycle wave b over in my estimation.  A reversal and close beneath the ZBT in other words.
Wilshire weekly shows a close beneath the upper cycle channel line. (SPX is sitting on directly on it)
BPSPX. This too is weaker breadth at the high as we would expect. Its neat that I could put the same double zigzag count to the BPSPX which is of course the primary count for cycle wave b.  Kind of helps confirm things in terms of how sentiment wanes and waxes.
Short term, the head and shoulders pattern still looks valid and all the "sideways" action of the last day or so looks like a small corrective consolidation of the market.before moving lower once again.  The head and shoulder target is shown. Prices have been hovering near major horizontal support. If support breaks, I fully expect the head and shoulders downside target to be met and probably overshoot to the downside.   Monday's open may determine the outcome of that bull/bear support battle.






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