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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 July 2013

You could tell by the overlapping wave structure and the weak internals that the market was trading heavy and "tired".  Today may have been an ending diagonal triangle:
Larger picture:

E-minis


Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 July 2013

The overall longer term picture:
Wave 5 of (C) of [Y]. Wave [iv] has run long on "time" on weak volume.

A closer look and potential wave count. Could be a (w)-(x)-(y) with a triangle in the final position trick.  Makes sense in this spot.  Seems the market wants to crack 1700 SPX.  I'll oblige it with a count.  Internals are weak but we expect them to be at this stage of the wave count.  If it cannot crack a new high, look out.

E-minis


Friday, July 26, 2013

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 July 2013

Its my birthday tomorrow! Hit the donate button if you are feeling generous :)

Anyways, the primary count gives the benefit of the doubt to the bulls here. After all, the sharp thrust off the recent low was very broad (but not a Zweig Breadth Thrust event) and it might take some time to dissipate. Retail is all on board again.

E-minis


Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 July 2013

Patience. Having entered the optimal target zone, we may need more time.
Squiggle count using the Wilshire5000

E-minis


Monday, July 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 July 2013

In the target zone.
There are enough squiggles in place.

E-minis


Friday, July 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 July 2013

Buy and hold is back:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-and-hold-wins-again-2013-07-19

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ultimate-buy-and-hold-strategy-2013-07-17?link=mw_story_kiosk

Of course I take a contraian view.


Technically we have NYAD in a negative divergence situation in both the daily and weekly charts. That hasn't really happened since the 2009 low.
Overall wave count. In the zone. Techncially note the ever decreasing volume and the waning MACD history.  At an all time high yet MACD history bars are barely positive! Bearish!
CRB. Worked off oversold and now is near overbought yet prices have languished.
Squiggle count:
P3 lives!


E-minis


Thursday, July 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 July 2013

Today's Investors Intelligence Bull ratio via Sentiment Trader:
Squiggle count:
In  the target zone:
Detroit files bankruptcy.  $18.5B in debt and some predict a 85-90% haircut on all of it.  Now THAT'S deflation. 

And Ben wants you to keep buying stocks. Good Luck!

E-minis


Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 July 2013

Not sure if wave [iii] has peaked yet or not. 


E-minis


Monday, July 15, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2013

Our leading diagonal count is pretty much dead. The Wilshire 5000 made new highs.  However looking at the bigger picture we have a nice symmetry in time and price aligning between waves [Y] and [W]. All we can really do at this point is paint a target circle based on waveform, time and price level.  We have entered into that circle.
Using the Wilshire 5000 reflects the same neat symmetry:
Elliott Wave International reported tonight's Daily Sentiment Reading is again at 87% bullishness. That's pretty high. Everyone is quickly on board again,
For once since the 2009 rally low, NYAD weekly cumulative is not leading the rally. In other words, this latest rally advance of the past few weeks is not seems more tired technically that previous kickoffs. And today was the lowest volume day of the year 

E-minis


Friday, July 12, 2013

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2013

Our 1661 SPX target was overshot by quite a bit. Still, unless proven otherwise, we'll keep the wave labels. 3 out of the last 4 days have been an uncovered gap up.  Irrational Exuberance indeed.
FTSE has a better wave pattern:
Via Sentiment Trader, today's AAII bullish ratio:

E-minis


Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 July 2013

On target for final squiggles. 4 open gaps up.

E-minis