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Monday, December 30, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 December 2013

Best squiggle count probably has prices dropping into the previous wave iv of (iii) price range before a final wave (v) of [v] of Minor 5.
10 year yields (and 30) have confirmed a large impulse pattern from its low.
CPC
If the 6 month yield can break a 4 1/2 year+  resistance line, short term rates may very well spike violently. Spiking yields will ultimately doom the massive credit bubble.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 December 2013

Elliott Wave International is offering an Elliott Wave Theorist Newsletter FREE published by Robert Prechter until January 6th.

< --------------CLICK THE EWI LINK TO THE LEFT

Just click on the EWI ad link to the left and signup as a FREE "Club EWI Member".  Its no gimmick, its really free with no strings attached. If you signup through my EWI link (I am an affiliate) I get $3 for every EWI free "Club Member" subscription.  Then should you ever choose to buy one of their products (newletters, books, etc.) I will get a commission $$ for every product you buy.  I certainly appreciate it!

EWI really is a no frills website and being a FREE EWI club member truly does mean you get FREE articles and stuff. There is no worry you are getting scammed. They just don't do that. 

I myself have subscribed to 4 newsletters for many years now; EW Theorist (monthly), Short Term Update (3 times a week), The Financial Forecast (monthly), and The Socionomic (monthly).  I recommend all four for those interested in Elliott Wave Theory.

Thanks again!


Best count:




E-minis


Monday, December 23, 2013

Friday, December 20, 2013

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 December 2012

The wave structure from the recent low of "i" to "ii" is 3 waves which is corrective.  That implies the next larger trend is down - wave iii of (iii) down to be specific.

E-minis


Monday, December 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 December 2013

Elliott Wave International is offering an Elliott Wave Theorist Newsletter FREE published by Robert Prechter until January 6th.

< --------------CLICK THE EWI LINK TO THE LEFT

Just click on the EWI ad link to the left and signup as a FREE "Club EWI Member".  Its no gimmick, its really free with no strings attached. If you signup through my EWI link (I am an affiliate) I get $3 for every EWI free "Club Member" subscription.  Then should you ever choose to buy one of their products (newletters, books, etc.) I will get a commission $$ for every product you buy.  I certainly appreciate it!

EWI really is a no frills website and being a FREE EWI club member truly does mean you get FREE articles and stuff. There is no worry you are getting scammed. They just don't do that. 

I myself have subscribed to 4 newsletters for many years now; EW Theorist (monthly), Short Term Update (3 times a week), The Financial Forecast (monthly), and The Socionomic (monthly).  I recommend all four for those interested in Elliott Wave Theory.

Thanks again!

The market regained the neckline. A series of (i)(ii) and i, ii is the count.
Resting on the underside of the upper cycle wave channel line.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 December 2013

UPDATE:
Elliott Wave International is offering an Elliott Wave Theorist Newsletter FREE published by Robert Prechter.

< --------------CLICK THE EWI LINK TO THE LEFT

Just click on the EWI ad link to the left and signup as a FREE "Club EWI Member".  Its no gimmick, its really free with no strings attached. If you signup through my EWI link (I am an affiliate) I get $3 for every EWI free "Club Member" subscription.  Then should you ever choose to buy one of their products (newletters, books, etc.) I will get a commission $$ for every product you buy.  I certainly appreciate it!

EWI really is a no frills website and being a FREE EWI club member truly does mean you get FREE articles and stuff. There is no worry you are getting scammed. They just don't do that.

I myself have subscribed to 4 newsletters for many years now; EW Theorist (monthly), Short Term Update (3 times a week), The Financial Forecast (monthly), and The Socionomic (monthly).  I recommend all four for those interested in Elliott Wave Theory.

Thanks again!

ORIGINAL POST:
I talked recently about what lower price level has to occur before we could conclusively determine that cycle wave b was over.  Lets look at that from a slightly different perspective. We'll look at it in terms of breadth, or more precisely, a reversal of breadth.

This chart shown 2 nights ago displays how breadth on the NYSE is lower then it was at the May 2013 high. This is a confirmation that momentum has slowed significantly since the 2009 low.  We would expect that to occur near a historic top.

Looking at the NYAD weekly, the tight channel would have to break for us to say cycle wave b is over. Of course I am predicting that is what will happen over the course of the next few weeks/month based on the wave counts. We have a ways to go though.

Yes there was a weaker Zweig Breadth Thrust that triggered on 18 October. And it has sustained the market since.  A close beneath the ZBT firing range (1646 SPX - see horizontal line) pivot would also likely confirm cycle wave b over in my estimation.  A reversal and close beneath the ZBT in other words.
Wilshire weekly shows a close beneath the upper cycle channel line. (SPX is sitting on directly on it)
BPSPX. This too is weaker breadth at the high as we would expect. Its neat that I could put the same double zigzag count to the BPSPX which is of course the primary count for cycle wave b.  Kind of helps confirm things in terms of how sentiment wanes and waxes.
Short term, the head and shoulders pattern still looks valid and all the "sideways" action of the last day or so looks like a small corrective consolidation of the market.before moving lower once again.  The head and shoulder target is shown. Prices have been hovering near major horizontal support. If support breaks, I fully expect the head and shoulders downside target to be met and probably overshoot to the downside.   Monday's open may determine the outcome of that bull/bear support battle.






E-minis


Thursday, December 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 December 2013

The primary count is that cycle wave b has topped and the opening stages of cycle wave c are beginning to unfold. Cycle wave c of Supercyle wave (a) is projected to consist of 5 primary waves down - a giant impulse pattern. These waves should take prices well below the 2009 lows and devastate the world economically.

 The alternate count is that Minor 5 of (C) of [Y] of cycle b has not yet topped.

At what price point would confirm Minor 5 is likely over? In my estimation, Wilshire 18,409 (see purple arrow on chart below). Its at this point where price overlaps with key subwaves and would likely break free out of the lower intermediate channel line (red).

We have good technical evidence that this is the area prices are headed toward. The broken neckline on our head and shoulders topping pattern was backtested and rejected, so the path of least resistance for the next few days may very well be down.  The minimum downside target for this pattern is the horizontal pivot support at 18,539. Oftentimes these minimum targets get overshot by a wider margin.

E-minis


Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 December 2013

The wave count supports the notion that cycle wave b has topped.  We have been trying to confirm the end of Minor 5 of (C) of [Y] of cycle b.  The waves were getting sloppy as noted the last few days. Today's price action helps our bearish case.

After closing above the upper cycle channel line for 4 weeks, the Wilshire 5000 has solidly closed back beneath it.   You can see other nearby supports. The big one is the purple arrow where horizontal meets a lower Intermediate -sized channel line. 
Our squiggle count shows a close beneath a head and shoulders formation. Downside minimum target shown.
Yet bets have never been bigger. Yes this is the obligatory (via Sentiment Trader) chart showing Investor's Intelligence highest bullish reading since that infamous year of 1987.  Chart came out tonight.
Nikkei. Keeping it simple. The key point is the wave (4) triangle indicates the upside move is on its last legs. A triangle such as this is always in the final corrective position of a wave structure. This implies the impulse move since the Primary B low is nearly over.
6 month yield is working itself into position to break a huge resistance. If that occurs, I expect short term yields to spike big time. Of course a big price move higher on short term rates would be "unexpected" by the talking pundits. I won't be surprised one bit should it happen.
NYAD cumulative. Beneath May's peak.  Breadth could start leading to the downside versus leading to the upside as it so often has during the bull run since 2009.
No panic here yet.
Very nice wave channel. And wave 5 hit the middle of the channel as so often happens. Proportions are excellent between waves.  It has the "right look".  And really, even if cycle wave b is not over, we can say that this Intermediate-sized 5 wave move should be over based on a simple channel and simple count.  That at least calls for a correction of decent size at the very least. Coupled with historic bullish extremes, it all seems to fit. Now we await the tape over the next few days and weeks.
Make or break time for the CRB index. Nearing horizontal support. Yet the little bounce relieved "oversold" on the RSI once again .  Still obeying the down trendline. Eventually in a deflationary environment (which I predict when the credit bubble is finally burst for good), prices should work lower than the low in 2009. 

CONCLUSION:
Things are aligning for a historical cycle wave b top. Sentiment extremes coupled with wave counts and channeling point toward the markets on the verge of a cycle wave c down that will finally burst the credit bubble once and for all. 

E-minis


Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 December 2013

Looking at the bigger picture of Intermediate wave (C). Searching for the end of Minor 5.
Playing around with wave counts there is a bit of an upward triangle formation for Minor 4. That would imply Minute [v] of Minor 4 is playing out and the market need only make a nominal new high in the Wilshire5000 and SPX to complete the last squiggle
If we get that nominal high, the best squiggle projection is something like this.
Weekly. Yeah its still overbought.

E-minis


Monday, December 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 December 2013

Waves are getting sloppy. That could indicate that an ending expanding diagonal triangle is forming (although imperfect at that). This count implies a new high in the Wilshire5000 and S&P500 and then quick price reversal to the downside.
Bigger picture shows that if this is an ending diagonal triangle, there will likely be a swift selloff of at least 800 - 1000 Wilshire points very swiftly.  Ending diagonals indicate exhaustion.
The other count is that this is merely a deep wave (ii).  In that case wave (iii) down is coming.

E-minis