Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March 2014

There are 2 counts I am closely watching. The first count is that the market has topped and is merely tagging out a meandering wave [ii] flat.

The second count is an extended Minor wave 5 count.  This is how you would properly count an extended wave 5.  Basically the subwave Minute [v] of extended Minor 5 would also sport an extended count and look. One thing about this count is that once it has reached its terminus, a violent bearish reversal is in store.

This GDOW chart below is a textbook example of an extended wave five count into the 2007 top. And note the subsequent bearish exhaustive collapse.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 March 2014

[Update Sat 4:25 PM: I posted the wrong chart Friday night. The correct one is up now]

Wave structure is muddled. However, the tops of the various indexes are spread out. The market is currently fragmented which could indicate a major topping process (cycle wave b).

I re-drew the cycle wave channel line. Its more interesting this way and has more touch points.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 March 2014

Today was a bunch of sideways movement which could indicate a small degree wave [4]. Tomorrow's open should be telling. If prices go lower, than a 5 wave move will have occurred from the recent counter-trend high. If it opens higher and overlaps where red [1] is, then things get muddled for the bearish side.

Remember for the bearish side, we want to see 5 wave impulse moves at every degree of scale.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 March 2014

Bearish price action and closing solidly below the neckline.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2014

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 March 2014

Neckline of a head and shoulders pattern.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 March 2014

Wave (ii) count is still intact.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 March 2014

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March 2014

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 March 2014

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Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 March 2014

E-minis

Home from traveling. Posts and updates should be back to normal.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 March 2014

Possible leading diagonal triangle.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 March 2014

Sorry for the lack of posts this week but I am travelling and had laptop problems and just had no other time for alternate solutions. Problem is solved and I'll be back home Saturday.

And actually there is not much to add count-wise from last Thursday's update.

We still have what appears to be an incomplete pattern although I am leaning toward some kind of ending diagonal expanding triangle.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 March 2014

No good wave count here. But this pattern of an expanding wedge is worth noting.

Bigger picture count looks fine though.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 March 2014

It will take a close beneath Monday's strong open candle to consider a reversal.  Monday is a "key marker" day in my estimation. The strong gap up day can only be nullified by a closing price that finishes beneath it.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 March 2014

The squiggle count is muddled. However the expanding wedge is still intact.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 March 2014

The best count has the market topping last week.

And a first wave bottoming today

The best bullish (short term new top) alternative is that the market is tracing some kind of lurching, expanding ending diagonal triangle. This is not a great count, but we have seen this pattern at tops before. Right now I am just focusing on the potential pattern.