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Monday, April 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 April 2014

The overall 2 year uptrend is still intact. We certainly have a count if new highs are coming. Its certainly curious that the opening gap up today was filled and then prices rose vigorously. We shall see what that portends. Sometimes I take a covered gap as the one that occurred today as a signal that market makers are covering their tracks so that further advances don't present those bear target big open gap fill price moves later on.  In other words, they mean to take prices higher.
Or using the SPX weekly we still have a valid extended Minor wave 5 count as the last Zweig Breadth thrust may not yet be "expended". This ZBT event is still important in my book. I dismissed the first two too quickly and the third has managed to maintain a certain momentum also. 

Oh the ZBT will eventually exhaust but when is what we count waves for.
Simply put, we don't yet have a 5 wave pattern down - even on the all-hours e-minis - to indicate a trend change (nor has the uptrend channel or previous pivot supports yet been broken.)
One bearish possible count that will yield a "five down" is shown here on the Wilshire 5 minute chart:
Elliott Wave International's top count is a series of ones and twos down. That count has rarely worked in the past but just because it has failed too many times to mention as a viable count from the top, doesn't mean that this time might not yield something different.

Conclusion. They bought the gap close today quite vigorously. It also happened to be major lower channel support so its not surprising.
If lower channel support is smashed through - such as in the bearish [i]-[ii], (i) - (ii) count just above, then yes might have some serious selling coming at us.

In the end we have to let the market show us its hand. It has kept it hidden, as it usually does, quite nicely. We have options on the next major counts and we eagerly await.

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