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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 August 2014

The market continues to unfold Minute wave [v] of Minor 5 up.  The top of this wave is projected to be the top of cycle wave b based on the overall count since 2009.
Today nearly triggered the fourth "Zweig Breadth Thrust" event since the 2009 low.  A ZBT event is explained here.

Basically in the chart below, the indicator on the bottom has to move from under .40 to above .615 within 10 days.  Today was the 10th day and the data says the day ended at .611. So yes technically its not a ZBT event yet it still indicates a strong market move that suggests - perhaps - longer term strength than most bears would care to see.  However the current primary wave count suggests it will not last as long as the 3 actual ZBT events.
Location of other ZBT evenets in the wave structure shown below.  No ZBT event has ever been closed under since the 2009 low. Even though the strong upward breadth of the past 10 days is not techncially a ZBT event, I would consider a close under 1900 SPX a reversal of the breadth move. Obviously I'm getting ahead of myself, but 1900 is an important level for future reference.
Best guess squiggle count:

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