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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 October 2014

Has Minute [ii] of Minor 1 traced out? We'll give the market the benefit of the doubt and say probably not. Certainly at one point during the midday, up volume was strong and market internals were more robust rather than not.

A good EW form (roughly speaking) would have Minor 1 travel such as this presented below. So on a larger time chart, one could expect to see a Minute [ii] stand out. So far it doesn't so it would be nice if it did.
So we are left with two competing patterns from yesterday's options.  Count 2 has the market bottoming in Minute [i] down. You'll notice it was predicted this possible final small rise and new low from yesterday's chart to form the final subwaves of [i] down..
Count 1 imagines that a series of progressive waves 1 and 2's are occurring to the downside. This count is suspect because the market usually doesn't trace waves this way.  But we have it up here in case the shit hits the fan tomorrow.  

The market has seemingly "wanted" to rally for the past 2 days but couldn't get off the ground.  This could be a sign of a bottoming process for Minute [i] down of a very large Minor 1 down.   Market internals on both days were decent at least for the most part. On the other hand, its also a sign that a market that "cannot get up" may very well be a dangerous market for the long side.

The only thing that I would hesitate is that the DJIA clearly seemed to end in an ending diagonal triangle and these are usually swift declining events after the diagonal has completed. So to put your faith in a 50 to 70 point SPX bounce (Minute [ii]) takes some guts.

Tomorrow should be a telling day in the wave structure hopefully. Good Luck! Futures will probably give us a clue. 
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