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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2014

It was about an 82% up day for the NYSE and 77% up ratio day for the NASDAQ Composite.  Our wave count from Friday is mangled a bit.

All we can say is that on a weekly scale, the market hit a lower Intermediate-sized channel line (green).  This has produced an Intermediate-sized bounce (perhaps).  The line was important for now.
The market has 4 days to produce another Zweigh Breadth Thrust event.  It would need to finish above .618. Not quite there yet. If it triggers, we must assume the market has a very good shot of going to new all-time highs at least for the Wilshire5000 and SPX.
The GDOW bounce is much less robust so far. There are divergences going on.
There is one other trendline that seems to be important and that is the down sloping line from peak. Possible count - take with a grain of salt.- just playing around at this stage. At .618 Fib, a wave [iii]?
Or the biggest expanding leading diagonal triangle you ever saw? Again, the down-sloping trendline is likely important to the bull/bear case. Many touch points. Look at the huge gap up!
I don't have any smart short term counts. Either the market is in some kind of wave two (or four) bounce that will reveal itself in the wave pattern at a later time, or the market made an Intermediate low and will trigger a ZBT event and eventually make new market highs.  Isn't wave analysis simple and logical?  :)

The lower green channel line on the weekly (first chart) was important.  The down sloping trendline from peak shown on the last two charts is also likely important.  

If we have any chance of a bear case, shit will have to hit the fan soon and prices must decline and decline hard. I don't like either bear charts for short term counts, but its the best I can come up with.
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