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Monday, October 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 October 2014

The market avoided a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) event with today's trading. The 10 day window has passed. In fact, the breadth is diverging over the last few sessions. As prices (at least on the DOW) nudge higher, breadth closes lower.
This thrust event is actually a tad weaker than the near miss back in August.  So that is consistent with a weakening market condition long term.

The previous ZBT near-miss in the summer event took prices from 1904 SPX all the way to 2019 SPX, a 115 point rise.

This current near-miss, which is already diverging, has taken prices from 1820 SPX all the way to 1865 SPX - a 145 point move.  Is this a last-gasp effort to keep the underlying rot from falling apart?  We shall see.
GDOW may hold the key: The long term chart shows the true nature of the wave structure since the 2009 low - it has been a three wave corrective.
The short term chart  Looking for {b] wave pullback?
SPX count sucks but lets roll with it for now. It has retraced almost to wave (ii) of [v].  It will take a close above the key 1970 mark to consider the "downtrend" conquered..

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