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Friday, May 30, 2014

elliott Wave Update ~ 30 May 2014

Lots of interesting charts tonight.

Wilshire monthly and weekly:
SPX weekly:
Potential DJIA ending diagonal triangle. If its is that, then after it completes, guidelines of EW theory says prices should collapse by at least 1000 DJIA points for starters. Should be fun.
Gold's wave "D" . Sentiment is low expect a sharp rebound up for wave "E".
Dollar hanging tough after all these years.  Its the bonds you need to worry about first.  
Speaking of bonds, 30 year could use a new low to complete a large primary impulse pattern.
6 month chart makes for a nice bull flag.   Breaking resistance would be a big deal. If short term interest rates spike, its game over. The FED knows that. They are desperate. The market will win. It always does in the long run. You all know that too.
VIX falling wedge?
BPSPX ongoing negative dirvergence
GDOW. 

E-minis


Thursday, May 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 May 2014

Again, the 2 most interesting counts are shown below:

E-minis


Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 May 2014

The two most interesting patterns are the SPX weekly and DJIA possible wedge ending diagonal triangle.

E-minis


Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 May 2014

Remember the classic way to count an extended wave 5 is shown below:

E-minis


Friday, May 23, 2014

E-minis


The writer of this story sure is smug in his writing .  We must be getting close....

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 May 2014

Elliott Wave International (click on my links to left to become a free EWI Club Member) pointed out the potential ending diagonal triangle wedge pattern developing on the DJIA. That is a bearish pattern.
Wiltshire is still diverging badly with the recent SPX and DJIA highs.
Gold chart is still looking good for its long term count.
6 month looks like a giant bull flag for yields.
Does the GDOW look like an impulse since the 2009 low? Of course not.  And its looking raggedy also with its diverging RSI and possible wedge action going on.
BPSPX still flashing weakness.
Wilshire weekly prices nearing its lower channel line.

E-minis


Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 May 2014

I still cannot believe this whole pile of crap is holding support.

E-minis


Monday, May 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 May 2014

All I can really add is that the last few months look a bit ragged and tried when you look at the wave structure spanning the past 10-12 weeks or so.  In other words, the waves look tired. Yet somehow it is still holding above major support. We'll see.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Friday, May 16, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 May 2014

We'll see what next week brings.

E-minis


Thursday, May 15, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 May 2014

Prices have indeed begun to collapse as suggested if the SPX was in an ending diagonal triangle. If this was an ending diagonal - which indicates overall exhaustion of the 2 year uptrend - then even more price collapse should come quickly. But for now major support held for today.

If prices can hold above around 1838 SPX, and then somehow manage to creep up again to another new all-time high, it could be indicative of yet a bigger ending diagonal triangle (as suggested by the upper green line.)

Either way things are getting interesting.  Note the higher volume bar of today's downdraft. Technically speaking that is bearish.
Wilshire weekly.
Swapped the primary and alt counts. We just have to let things work themselves out. The Wilshire diverged from both the SPX and Industrials in a big way on the latest topping efforts of the latter 2.
This is really the first time the overall Wilshire has diverged in this manner since the 2009 low. Every major peak in the 5 year uptrend has shown a remarkable symmetry at least between the Wilshire 5000 and S&P 500. This time there exists a significant negative divergence. Couple this alonmg with waning momentum indicators and the recipe for a major bear move is formidable.

E-minis


Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 May 2014

Some obvious negative divergences on the daily SPX. Also, was that an ending diagonal triangle? If so, prices should soon collapse as a result.
The count of the Wilshire 5000 which has not reached a new high and is diverging with the S&P and INDU.
Maybe it will reach a new high and if so, here is the best squiggle count at the moment.
BPSPX is also seriously diverging. Momentum is waning.

E-minis


Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 May 2014

Updating the same charts we have been using for the past 2 months or so. Yeah its boring, but tracking a conclusion to a 2 year uptrend channel tends to be tedious near the end.  The best count has it ending soon, but EW theory and wave counting come down to a probability exercise. 

Prices have obeyed the channel and until it doesn't, we'll keep counting upwards. Horizontal support and channel support seems important. Until they are violated with authority, we have to jeep counting. I have feeling though that when they do get violated to teh downside they will be breached together at the same time.
Possible short term count. Complex correction over the past few weeks/months.