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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 November 2014


Monday, November 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 November 2014

I wish there was a better way to count this but this is as good as any.  There seems to be 3 distinct channeling areas which is why its labeled the way it is.  There has been no significant corrections since the 1820 low to put your finger on.

Certainly there are other ways to label it.
Our GDOW chart counts better as a "three" at the moment which is what its supposed to be if its a wave 2 as labeled.
Larger picture GDOW:

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Friday, November 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 November 2014

Primary wave down in Gold may be over. A primary-sized rebound - perhaps 50% of the decline from peak - may backtest the broken channel line over many, many months.
Bonds: someday the channel will break. Likely on a third wave down. It is setting itself up for that possibility. I like the Fib/time relationship. There is a reason that Japan's rates have been low for so long: It would be game over if they rise in any appreciable way. Of course they will and so will ours. Of course when is the question. Thats why we do wave counting and technicals and stuff....
Shorter term moves:
Dollar due for backtest perhaps too. 
SPX weekly: very narrow weekly candle.



Thursday, November 13, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 November 2014

Rally appears to be nearing the end according to our medium term count.  At the least, we can expect a Fibonacci pullback. If we had 50% pullback as measured from the 1820 low, that's obviously about 113 SPX points or so at the moment filling some of those open gaps up.
Squiggles:
6 Month yield chart gets some more movement going.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Monday, November 10, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 November 2014

Lots of gaps.
5 minute chart shows possible squiggle pathing for last wave
GDOW

Friday, November 7, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 November 2014

2035.48 SPX would be where wave (5) is .618 times the price length of wave (1). Today's high was 2034.26. I guess we'll see if the Fib ratio comes into play tomorrow Monday (duh).
Possible squiggle based on 2035ish.
Big turn today in Gold. Sentiment has been shit for weeks, so perhaps my $1033 target is reaching too far. It could be the end of an Intermediate wave. Thus the bounce back up could be quite significant if its a primary wave. Time to get bullish on gold.
The US Dollar also has some extreme sentiment readings occurring. Time for a fall in price and backtest the breakout line?

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 November 2014

The best wave relationship we have at the moment exists on the SPX at 2035 SPX. This is where wave (5) equals a Fibonacci .618 times the price length of wave (1).  Wave (4) clearly exists within the red channel and seems to have a corrective relationship with wave (1) which is why we labeled it wave (4).
 Possible squiggle count to meet this 2035 target:
GDOW still lagging.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 November 2014

Incredible that the GDOW is merely above a 50% retrace

Monday, November 3, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 November 2014

Lets start with the markets and counts that have been working well for a long time.

Gold confirmed wave (5) down.
US Dollar has broken out to the upside:
Bonds have fulfilled a double zigzag and a neat Fib retracement.
Oil:
 GDOW weekly best shows the rise since 2009 as an A-B-C pattern.
Medium term best shows the drop since peak as an impulse pattern down:
Short term we have some options:
Wilshire Monthly. Still an A-B-C pattern from the 2009 low.
SPX weekly:  Important Fib relationship exists at 2035 SPX. Today's peak was 2024.