Custom Search

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 June 2105

I don't have a strong inclination if this pattern will finish out or not. But its still hanging in there. Until the pattern either finishes outright or is violated and closes under recent price pivots in numerous indexes, its the best we have.
The Fed won't raise rates until the US 3 month yield rises to at least .25 (for a quarter point hike). Today's rate was at .01 closer to going negative than a rate raise. The Fed follows the markets, they do not lead them. Nor do I doubt they can "control" them any more than they can control angry mobs. They can merely catch good social mood (rising) waves and hope for the best.
Note that the positions of the numerous Fed officials projections of raising rates have been lowered since March's forecast. Why? Look at that chart again in LOG scale to see that there exists a small divergence over the last few months. And its to the opposite direction - deflation.
But a rising cycle wave b of huge proportions is a paradoxical Elliott wave event. Here you have a very strong cross-current of 2 major mood trends. The LARGEST trend is actually down. That of Supercycle degree. The counter-trend subwave of cycle b may have mood rising within the larger downtrend but the overall larger trend is constantly being "felt". 

And as time moves on, that eroding social mood of larger degree trend will eventually win out. And then cycle wave c down combines the 2 largest social mood trends as down. Then we'll see how good the Fed thinks it really is. Social mood will turn against them in that circumstance.  

blog comments powered by Disqus