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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 August 2015

Since the S&P500 and Wilshire 5000 topped a while back, there has not been an impulsive move down. Therefore one has to respect that the market still wants to take a stab at a new high.
On both charts above, it would take a solid close beneath the wave 4 pivot prices in order to declare that the wave pattern was finished. Obviously that hasn't happened yet which is why we still think Minor 5 is still the primary count.

Another tell-tale sign is that if the indexes did finish in an ending diagonal triangle as proposed, then prices would have collapsed by now out of sheer exhaustion. Obviously they haven't just yet. Therefore we assume the pattern may not yet be complete.

With all that said, there is definite signs of deterioration within the stock market. The DJIA has now dropped more than 1200 points from its high. Once high-flying stocks are getting hammered. Credit spreads are starting to blow out. Divergences are everywhere if one cares to look. The underneath rot is certainly still there and evidence is piling up.

If the count above is correct and the market makes a stab at a new high, the prediction is this:

The market will collapse in a swift move to the downside once the pattern is completed. I ponder if there will be a slow deterioration as we have had over the last month. If the S&P broke above 2140, even briefly to complete an ending diagonal triangle pattern, then the subsequent price moves could very well be a historic collapse in a swift manner.

So bears have that scenario going for them.

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