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Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 September 2015

Primary count is that the market is in Minor 2 wave up.
As far as interest rates, the 6 month yield has been breaking out. The wave count has it going up in a wave three breaking above a bullish ascending triangle scenario.
However the Fed will not base their interest rate decision(s) based on the 6 month yield, nor longer dated yields. They base their decision most consistently on what the 3 month yield is at the moment. Keeping up with the 3 month yield rate is the "sweet spot" for the Fed banks to make the most money versus the market. They really have no choice in this. Alan Greenspan himself has always admitted that "the market sets the rates".

At the moment the 3 month yield is only .03%. In order for the Fed to raise rates a quarter point, in my estimation the 3 month yield will have to rise to at least .25% for the Fed to hike. They could raise 1/8 of a point, but in that case the 3 month will need to rise to around .13 % and stay there for a bit. The Fed follows the market, it does not lead it.

And so far the bond market is sending mixed signals that confuse the Fed. The 6 month yield is indeed "breaking out" technically. And if it continues as expected, it will eventually affect 3 month yields and they too should eventually breakout to the upside (bond prices move down in that case). And if they do, no matter what the stock market is doing at the time, the Fed will eventually be pressured to keep up with interest rate rises (or declines) based on what the moves of bond market.

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