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Monday, September 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 September 2015

On the 18th of September's update it was suggested that the top wave counts both pointed to prices continuing to the downside after the Fed reversal. We even had an ending diagonal pattern with the 2020 intraday SPX peak. The subsequent price decline has not disappointed.

Since that time, it has been decided to switch counts from the 2020 high as being a Minute wave [iv] of Minor 1 peak instead of Minor 2 price peak. That may or may not be the case depending on what the market continues to do and any potential further degree of selling pressure.

The only requirement is that the indices make lower lows under the 24 August lows. That has already happened on the GDOW for instance. The Wilshire 5000 is close also. The SP 500 is close.
So far the subwaves since the 2020 rebound peak do not yet count as 5 waves down.
Wilshire 5000 daily. Note that the last wave up to wave (5) at the summer peak is labeled as an ending diagonal triangle pattern which usually suggests that prices will retrace to the start of the pattern - red (4) - very quickly due to exhaustion.  Prices are sitting on a support shelf and if that breaks, perhaps some panic selling will ensue and the downside initial target of 19160 will be reached at the very least..
Weekly: Almost to the black lower channel line.

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