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Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 December 2015

Sometimes its useful to look at the wave counts zooming out to get a bigger picture development.  We can guess the probability of squiggles all day long but in this case the Wilshire daily chart may be more instructive.

Logically speaking, the price low of Minute [v] of Minor 1 down was a lower price than [iii] of 5. This is not in dispute. Therefore the count up cannot start at [iii] - unlike the S&P500 and and DJIA which can start there because they did not have a solid 5 waves down.

But the Wilshire surely did.

The underside of the channel rejected prices once recently and it would be a good guess that they are reaching for the underside in another attempt.  This pattern would result in a very deep Minor 2 retrace up but still within the rules of EW counting.  Would the S&P and/or DJIA make new highs under these deep retrace circumstances of the Wilshire5000? There is a very probable chance yes that they would.

A higher Minor 2 as shown on this chart would also "look better" for there would be 3 distinct waves back up as marked [a]-[b]-[c]. Additionally an ominous head and shoulder pattern would be present on the Wilshire (but likely not the S&P) so any pundits would have a difficult time pointing out an overall H&S pattern.
Additionally, likely the GDOW weekly would also form a distinctive [a]-[b]-[c] pattern which would look ideal. The GDOW too has five solid waves down.
Time-wise would also make sense that Minor 2 high peaks in December as opposed to the very short early November marker as Minor 1 took 3 months.
Well that's the best I can do at this stage. The more the waves trace, the better the odds of getting the pattern correct. Yes that may seem stupid, but you need to have a first pattern in place before you can predict the subsequent wave pattern. So far Minor 1 down in the Wilshire5000 traced a solid 5 waves. So far, Minor 2 up has not traced yet a clear 3 wave pattern. It seems intent on at least topping the early November rebound peak so we might as well anticipate that if it happens.

The late August incredibly fast drop has - predictably - created a multi-month trading range. We are still within that range and could be for many more months if long-winded right hand shoulder (see first chart above) needs more time to develop.

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