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Friday, December 4, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 December 2015

Today's up volume ratio and advancers versus decliners via the NYSE was rather anemic compared to the actual percentage gain in the major indices.  Usually a DJIA day of +370 results in 3:1 or 4:1 or much higher ratios in both. Today's ending respective ratios were  2.03:1 and 1.91:1, quite muted. And the 2:1 ending of up volume only came about in a surge at the last minute. Most of the day it hovered between 1.1 to 1.8.

The advancing issues actually diverged from this morning.  The high of the day occurred at around 11 A.M. at 2.13:1.  Overall the underlying technical situation can be considered weak despite the 2% up market day. And there is an open gap up left from today's open to boot.
Despite all that, well yeah, we are still trading the the multi-month trading range created by the rapid selloff of late August.
Short term yields are on the rise. A 3 month yield above >.25 is probably what it will take for the Fed to raise interest rates to the .25 - .50 range.
We use the 6 month yield count (which I consider a proxy for the 3 month count) because the 3 month is too noisy being so close to the 0% yield line for so long.  The 6 month count is in wave 3 and it is rising like a wave 3 so we'll go with it.

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