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Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 June 2015

Best guess count is that we are in a wave (ii) bounce. Squiggle count:

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 June 2015

I most often use the Wilshire 5000 for absolute wave counts because I feel it captures and traces social mood waves in the market better than any other index. A few days ago,  it peaked at an all-time high versus the other main indexes (S&P, DJIA) did not.

Thus the Wilshire fulfilled a potential Intermediate-sized ending diagonal triangle as shown below.
And since that recent peak, we have a pretty good impulse pattern lower which may indicate the trend has changed. We may get a bounce in a wave (ii).
Conclusion:
We have been patiently tracing the waves for many, many months for the market to reveal its unfolding wave hand. At the moment the best overall wave count has been posted. The ending diagonal triangle is a topping pattern. Now a small wave impulse down has occurred. Has the market finally reached cycle wave b?  Thats the best call for what we have.

If it is an ending diagonal triangle then we expect prices to swiftly collapse back to where the final ED pattern started. As shown in the following chart, that point would be at least back to the black lower channel line for starters.


Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 June 2015

Again, our Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern has already made the required new high for wave 5.
A detailed look at Minor wave 5. Remember, and EDT pattern is not an impulse pattern. So Minor blue 5 would be counted [a][b][c] as labeled.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 June 2015

The Wilshire 5000 wave count made a new high today by 15 points which fulfills the minimum requirement of the ending diagonal triangle count.  There may be 1 more wave missing.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2015

Added some small degree waves to show an ideal end pathing to the ending diagonal triangle pattern for Intermediate wave (5).

I favor a continue rise only because of the logic of ending diagonals. If the ending diagonal triangle had topped where ALT 5 is shown, then prices should have - in theory - collapsed well beneath the recent price pivots by now. But they haven't yet. So I can only assume the pattern has not yet ended.

But if it does end as suggested below, then the collapse in prices should be very rapid to below RED (4) - yes that far!
Yes the DJIA weekly count suggests a few more weeks of sloughing to a new ED top.
GDOW may have one more top. Who knows.
Every major index shows a potential rising bearish wedge over the entire 2015 time period.
It looks like a classic wedge pattern.


Thursday, June 18, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 June 2015

Our count got a lot closer to being fulfilled.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 June 2105

I don't have a strong inclination if this pattern will finish out or not. But its still hanging in there. Until the pattern either finishes outright or is violated and closes under recent price pivots in numerous indexes, its the best we have.
The Fed won't raise rates until the US 3 month yield rises to at least .25 (for a quarter point hike). Today's rate was at .01 closer to going negative than a rate raise. The Fed follows the markets, they do not lead them. Nor do I doubt they can "control" them any more than they can control angry mobs. They can merely catch good social mood (rising) waves and hope for the best.
Note that the positions of the numerous Fed officials projections of raising rates have been lowered since March's forecast. Why? Look at that chart again in LOG scale to see that there exists a small divergence over the last few months. And its to the opposite direction - deflation.
But a rising cycle wave b of huge proportions is a paradoxical Elliott wave event. Here you have a very strong cross-current of 2 major mood trends. The LARGEST trend is actually down. That of Supercycle degree. The counter-trend subwave of cycle b may have mood rising within the larger downtrend but the overall larger trend is constantly being "felt". 

And as time moves on, that eroding social mood of larger degree trend will eventually win out. And then cycle wave c down combines the 2 largest social mood trends as down. Then we'll see how good the Fed thinks it really is. Social mood will turn against them in that circumstance.  

Monday, June 15, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 June 2015

Hanging on by the slimmest of margins

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 June 2015

A critical support level has been met and a big bounce has occurred. The odds of a new all time high are fairly good because the pattern from the recent all time high is best counted as a 3 wave pattern down which is corrective.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 June 2015

Multiple weekly charts suggest the count is ripe all ending with ending diagonal triangles at an Intermediate wave degree.

DJIA:
GDOW:
NYSE Composite:
Wilshire 5000 trendlines:
Wilshire Daily:
6 month count:
10 year looks like a 5 wave impulse pattern up from the near term low [2]..

Monday, June 8, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 June 2015

Our count is leaning bearish because price has leaned bearish for too many days now.  The lower trendline is broken under. If that trendline means anything then this is significant.

In other words, if the ending diagonal triangle is an true ED pattern, then price collapse is imminent. That is the guideline of ED patterns.


Thursday, June 4, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 June 2015

As was discussed in yesterday's post, it would be no surprise if the triangle pattern had failed in today's trading. It did just that.   It could still be wave [b] of Minor 5 to a new price peak but today's heavier selling pressure suggests that it might actually be a start of a wave (iii) down.
 
Our Wilshire 30 minute chart. Triangle was suspect because wave (a) was too deep a price plunge to triangulate around. It didn't have the "right look".

However, the count still works out as a [b] wave. Tomorrow is a key day. With jobs report coming out, it may be volatile, perhaps to the upside. Good luck.
Heavier selling pressure. No positive divergences to speak of.

Sitting on a trendline. Would be a logical place for a bounce.

 

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 June 2015

Our wave count is holding up still.

Wave (a) of the proposed [b] of 5 triangle dipped fairly low in price/pattern (and could conceivably be interpreted as impulsive down) so overall confidence in the triangle pattern is a smidgen suspect.  If it completely broke down and prices plunged that would not surprise me. But yet the best count has the market attempting new highs still.  Thus we have the count labeled the way we do.
Also time-wise, wave 5 would look perfect taking more time as is projected as compared to waves 1 and 3. So we'll keep the count as primary because that's the best count option both short, medium and long term.
And here is long term count. Doing the best with what we got.
30 year shows a 5 wave impulse pattern from the all time low. That indicates the overall largest trend degree is likely up.
10 year also spiked higher. Our debt load cannot handle a shock to interests rates. I always said that would be the unraveling of the Ponzi in bonds. I still believe it to be true.
Negative divergence stills exists technically.