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Friday, January 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 22 January 2016

Long tailed doji weekly candlestick pattern. This implies prices will not revisit the recent low this past week for a while. Market needs time to shake out short term bearish sentiment. This doesn't imply that the market will continue on a 'rip-your-face-off-rally' (note: its already did last 2 days).  It does imply that a new trading range has been reached and prices could be oscillating within that for a week or more with pokes higher above.

Backtest of the pink neckline seems likely sooner or later.
What's key is the wave count. Best guess count below. Already bottomed in wave [i] of 3? It would count better if the market revisited the recent low within a few weeks time.
Oil may have finally bottomed in wave (3). Kind of a falling wedge pattern (with overthrow)  that implies prices will rebound quicker than anyone expects. 60$ is not out of the question eventually in the next few months.
GDOW also a long tailed doji weekly candlestick pattern. It hit long term horizontal support. I don't suspect prices will make new lows any time soon. But eventually the primary wave count will win out - if it is correct - and they will.
Looking for $103 on the dollar based on the wave count and pattern target before a significant pullback. Might be pushing things. If it gets that high look for headline bullish stories on why the dollar is the greatest thing on earth. Then expect a pullback - sentiment is very high and needs to shake out.

Gold is either going to have 1 more quick bust to a new low to complete the ending diagonal triangle pattern or it has completed already. The next few days should reveal hopefully.
CPCE suggests an interim low. Note how 2009 was a whole bunch of spikes. I expect the same to happen here. By the time the bear market is lower this average is going to eventually go over 1 and stay there for a long time. We are very far away from that but this gives you perspective of how harsh the bear market is predicted to be.
6 month count. After a recent pullback and pause, it may be ready to explode higher in yield some more. We are in wave three of some degree so that would make sense. That's going to drag the 3 month count higher and the Fed may be forced to raise rates again in March even if they don't want to.

Have a great weekend and try not to trash my comments section too much! And for those so offended just learn to ignore it. I did.

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