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Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 8 June 2016

Wilshire coming up on last line of resistance prior to perhaps making a new all-time high price stab. Exciting times. June 2016 marks the peak of Prechter's 7.25 year price cycle which has been in existence for several decades. The March 2009 low was the last cycle low. It was expected that this would be a cycle price low but its shaping up to be the opposite.

I suppose June would be a good month to go short depending on whether indices start making new highs and others don't creating a bearish negative divergence.  But that hasn't happened yet, so probably hold tight until some divergences appear. If it pans out there is a lot of potential gain to the downside.  If not, set your stop accordingly.

Here is a bit of evidence of divergence. The GDOW is not yet 61.8% retrace yet the S&P is hovering near all-time highs.
3 month treasury yielding .24%. Based on this rate the FED will NOT likely raise rates next week.  In fact, hints of lowering (if economic weakness blah, blah, blah) may be expressed.  In other words, the Fed follows the market, it does not lead.  It waits to see what the market is doing and then it reacts once it has moved and signaled. So far the market is not signaling a rate raise.

But we'll see where this chart is next Tuesday. They really don't know what the heck they are doing. Its quite funny and quite pathetic.


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