If proposed wave 1 of (5) is the longest, and wave 3 of (5) is shorter than 1, then by Elliott Wave counting rule, wave 5 of (5) must be shorter than wave 3 as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave in a 5 wave sequence. Question is: Do we have wave 3 peak labeled correctly?
We can see wave 3 traced 5 waves and wave 4 may be taking the shape of an expanding triangle. Again, we'll keep the 3 there until it proves otherwise a bad count.
The GDOW factors into the evidence because the GDOW count does not allow for a new high.
Overall, if the market peak occurs a few weeks before the election, there may be time for a social mood negative swing that could propel Trump into getting back into the Presidential race. Otherwise Hillary Clinton will indeed win.
Hillary is the product of a rising social mood of the 1990's and Trump is the product of a sideways negative mood trend that occurred from mid 2015 (when he announced) until recently when the market started making new all-time highs.