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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 November 2016

We nearly have a minimum wave count fulfillment of our primary wave count of the Wilshire 5000.
The problem is, not much time has passed for wave 5 of (5) of [5] compared to its sister waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 of (5).
Yet here is the possible squiggle count. Note that wave [iii] is longer than wave [i] and therefore cannot be the shortest wave in a five wave structure (as required by EW rule). Wave [v] therefore has an opportunity to run up in both price and time if it so requires.
Wilshire nearly making a new all-time high today. Do note however that wave 1 is the longest of (5). Therefore 5 of (5) cannot run higher than 3 of (5) by rule or else this count is false. How does this larger degree count intersect with the 5-minute chart above? Wave [v] of 5 in the 5-minute count can run up in price as much as it wants - to a point - it cannot violate the daily chart below. Wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3 in the chart below. Therefore there is a "range" for price that both charts need to hit to maintain EW rules for both the higher degree count and subwave count.

Kinda neat huh?
Fibonacci 8 years is early March 2017 from the March 2009 low. That would make for a nice symmetry time-wise. However form takes precedence and as shown in the chart above, there is a valid 5 wave count since the November 4th low. However tops usually are more drawn-out affairs so take it with a grain of salt.
Another valid count in place.

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