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Thursday, September 20, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 September 2018

We are once again at a spot where there are enough subwaves in place to justify the count.
Weekly. Will prices run to the upper line? And this is log scale.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 September 2018

So far things are tracking the count we presented last Wednesday. Look for a panic day perhaps.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 September 2018

From an Elliott Wave rule and guideline perspective, the below count is the best at the moment. We have a nice Minor 4 contracting triangle. We have wave form alternation between subwaves (ii) of [iii] and (iv) of [iii] and between [ii] and [iv]. And the count has no overlap violations.
Updating the gold chart, Elliott Wave International (click on my links to left!) tonight showed a chart of record bearish bets against gold rising. This is a bullish contrarian signal and fits the overall count very well. I still am projecting Gold to go back to the blue box virgin area in price.
I'll show you a snippet of their chart...I'm sure they don't mind. Visit their website through my links and become a FREE EWI member (I get a small commission if you do)

Friday, September 7, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 September 2018

Probably the best count because wave (iv) of [iii] does not overlap (i) of [iii].

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 September 2018

Probably the best count at the moment

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 August 2018

I have no strong opinion on the short term wave count. We have been predicting a new all-time high and it has occurred. Just keep labeling them as they come. It does appear overall to be a final push but how long that lasts is a guess. November elections?  Just after Labor Day instead when volume comes back?
Touching overbought territory again on weekly. If we get a surge to the upper trendline its might be a blowoff top.

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 August 2018

There are enough waves in place at this moment.

Friday, August 10, 2018

Monday, August 6, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 August 2018

By no means the perfect count, but that's about where we seem to be

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 August 2018

Dog days of late summer are upon us.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 July 2018

Close to reaching a new high.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2018

This has become the top count due to wave structure.
It just looks better as a triangle of some sorts which implies new highs eventually. A break below key price points would negate the pattern.
Note: The INDU is significantly lower in prices and wave structure and may end up deviating from the Wilshire count. But this blog uses the Wilshire as the primary so its what we are going with. In either case the bearish deviation from other indexes implies that even if the Wilshire gets a new high price  or comes close, the others may not. That is bearish in the long run.

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 July 2018

Another version of the triangle count. This implies big upside is imminent.
Wave (2) count.  If wave C of (2) was an ending diagonal overlapping count, prices should have collapsed by now. They haven't. They may do so still, but it has to be quick. Too much churn.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June 2018

We are solidly stuck in the middle of the trading range created by the 2 week sharp drop long ago in late January/February of this year.

The question is, is it consolidation for eventual more upside or downside? We have 2 counts.

Monday, June 25, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 June 2018

The triangle count no longer is the best count. Today's price drop violated several guidelines.  The top count is the wave (2) count having had peaked. Wave C of (2) is counted as the form of a rising overlapping wedge. This implies that prices will quickly collapse beneath the price point of where "B" is marked. Today was a good start in that regard. If prices don't collapse then the count is suspect. Wedges always resolve in a quick collapse of prices to beneath where the last wave structure started. This price point where the last wave started would be "B".
For the triangle count to still be in effect we would have to relabel it and allow some guideline violations. It would however allow for a longer timeline to peak, such as end of summer or toward election day even.
Eventually prices will violate one count or the other in such a way as to render the count broken. 5 months after the market peak in the Wilshire 5000 we are still only right in the middle of the trading range that the quick 2 week collapsed had created.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 June 2018

The two counts. There really isn't a lot of difference between them. Both imply a stab at new highs and both imply after the count is over, it will be a brutal bear market.

The triangle count counts best at the moment unless the market was to collapse in prices almost immediately.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 June 2018

Two competing counts at the moment.  Wave (2) flat implies no new high.
Here is the triangle count in more detail. Minor 4 triangle implies new high to wave 5 of (5).

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 June 2018

The wave 4 triangle count. This count implies the market is in a wave [iii] of 5 of (5) of [5] of V.
The wave (2) flat count. The market has to turn down almost immediately this count has about run its course as a valid pattern.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 June 2018

One way or another, eventually the pattern will resolve.
 Or maybe this:

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 May 2018

Triangle option is increasing moving to the forefront as the primary count. Today was a strong up day internally ending the day 7.4 to 1 up volume on the NYSE and 4.2 to 1 on the advancers versus decliners.
Another possible count we'll keep an eye on. The wave degree was upgraded but that's not important at the moment. Form is.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 May 2018

Not much has changed. Top bearish counts:
Top alternate is that it is a long winded triangle. This would make sense as Trump has very high ratings which may indicate social mood is still highly elevated possibly pushing the markets to another all-time high in a final wave 5 of (5).

The sharp 2 week drop from the all time high indicated "Here's your trading range for the next many months". That's the way it usually works.  And the market is consolidating in a triangle for either a push to another all-time high or consolidating for a bearish push breaking below in a harsh wave three down.

Monday, May 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 May 2018

Not much has changed in a week. We are still awaiting the long term count to reveal itself.