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Friday, July 20, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 July 2018

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2018

This has become the top count due to wave structure.
It just looks better as a triangle of some sorts which implies new highs eventually. A break below key price points would negate the pattern.
Note: The INDU is significantly lower in prices and wave structure and may end up deviating from the Wilshire count. But this blog uses the Wilshire as the primary so its what we are going with. In either case the bearish deviation from other indexes implies that even if the Wilshire gets a new high price  or comes close, the others may not. That is bearish in the long run.

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 July 2018

Another version of the triangle count. This implies big upside is imminent.
Wave (2) count.  If wave C of (2) was an ending diagonal overlapping count, prices should have collapsed by now. They haven't. They may do so still, but it has to be quick. Too much churn.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June 2018

We are solidly stuck in the middle of the trading range created by the 2 week sharp drop long ago in late January/February of this year.

The question is, is it consolidation for eventual more upside or downside? We have 2 counts.

Monday, June 25, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 June 2018

The triangle count no longer is the best count. Today's price drop violated several guidelines.  The top count is the wave (2) count having had peaked. Wave C of (2) is counted as the form of a rising overlapping wedge. This implies that prices will quickly collapse beneath the price point of where "B" is marked. Today was a good start in that regard. If prices don't collapse then the count is suspect. Wedges always resolve in a quick collapse of prices to beneath where the last wave structure started. This price point where the last wave started would be "B".
For the triangle count to still be in effect we would have to relabel it and allow some guideline violations. It would however allow for a longer timeline to peak, such as end of summer or toward election day even.
Eventually prices will violate one count or the other in such a way as to render the count broken. 5 months after the market peak in the Wilshire 5000 we are still only right in the middle of the trading range that the quick 2 week collapsed had created.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 June 2018

The two counts. There really isn't a lot of difference between them. Both imply a stab at new highs and both imply after the count is over, it will be a brutal bear market.

The triangle count counts best at the moment unless the market was to collapse in prices almost immediately.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 June 2018

Two competing counts at the moment.  Wave (2) flat implies no new high.
Here is the triangle count in more detail. Minor 4 triangle implies new high to wave 5 of (5).

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 June 2018

The wave 4 triangle count. This count implies the market is in a wave [iii] of 5 of (5) of [5] of V.
The wave (2) flat count. The market has to turn down almost immediately this count has about run its course as a valid pattern.

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 June 2018

One way or another, eventually the pattern will resolve.
 Or maybe this:

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 May 2018

Triangle option is increasing moving to the forefront as the primary count. Today was a strong up day internally ending the day 7.4 to 1 up volume on the NYSE and 4.2 to 1 on the advancers versus decliners.
Another possible count we'll keep an eye on. The wave degree was upgraded but that's not important at the moment. Form is.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 May 2018

Not much has changed. Top bearish counts:
Top alternate is that it is a long winded triangle. This would make sense as Trump has very high ratings which may indicate social mood is still highly elevated possibly pushing the markets to another all-time high in a final wave 5 of (5).

The sharp 2 week drop from the all time high indicated "Here's your trading range for the next many months". That's the way it usually works.  And the market is consolidating in a triangle for either a push to another all-time high or consolidating for a bearish push breaking below in a harsh wave three down.

Monday, May 14, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 May 2018

Not much has changed in a week. We are still awaiting the long term count to reveal itself.

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 May 2018

The top alternate is the triangle count. If it is to play out, expect at least one more hard dip down in a "gloom" open then sharp rebound upwards, eventually towards new all-time highs.

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 April 2018

The top alternate has not been eliminated as a possibility that a contracting triangle is forming at Minor degree:

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 April 2018

Probably is going to at least hit the upper trendline.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 March 2018

There is room for a rally here prior to the bottom falling out in Minute wave [iii].
Top alternate medium term count:

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 March 2018

Interesting patterns. The whole looks like a bearish structure though which is how its labeled.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 March 2018

If this is indeed Minute wave [ii], it should resolve soon and then a huge wave [iii] down will be the next wave count.
No panic in the recent selloff.
Market prices dictate they will raise rates yet again. Market is getting way ahead of the FED. The Fed will follow.