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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 July 2019

The thing that still strikes me most is how overbought the market in early 2018 had become on a weekly basis. This best fits into a subwave three peak within a wave three. That would be [iii] of 5 of (3) in this case.  It seems the last 18 months the market has been working off that extreme overbought situation thereby setting itself up for one final push in what we have labeled wave 3 of (5).

Amazingly the overbought has been worked off and prices are higher than the peak overbought price of early 2018. Hence the overall primary count.

However we may get some sharp weakness and selling first to form wave [ii] of 3 first. I have no decent subwave count just yet.   We just have to be patient.
In log scale the waveform looks a bit different. Some would argue its actually a huge double zigzag since the 2009 low because it has 3 major correctives rather than an impulse 5 wave move which has only 2. And I wouldn't argue. I have made many a point that this entire rise since 2009 is built on a huge "B" wave and not a true impulse which makes it a gigantic corrective wave in social mood which implies social mood is still quite sour and merely taking a break prior to the real dirty civil war which seems a course this nation is headed. Who can argue that it is not a corrective?

In any case it matters not. The outcome seems the same. We peak and then the collapse.
Gold looks like a good count:
Or something more drawn out:

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