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Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2020

Again, as we said yesterday, a lower low would look ideal for our Intermediate wave (1) structure, however its not required.

Minor 4 can count as an expanded 3-3-5 flat. However, for this Minor 4 to remain the primary count, the market pretty much has to turn down now to start forming Minor 5 of (1). And at the end of day we can see how fast that was the case.

Again, Intermediate (1) may have seen its low as you can note in the alternate count.  If that's the case, then we should see Intermediate (2) keep playing out.

Note that the Fib lines were adjusted to place the 38% and 62% at the peak price points of waves 1 and 4 as that seems to line up nicely for now so we'll go with it.
Looking at the squiggles, we may have a small 5th wave failure at the end of today. Possible squiggle count below. 
Again the weekly would look better with another test of the major support (a lower low for our current wave (1) structure) prior to a proper Intermediate (2) rally.

This implies we have one more "panic" that will set everyone over the edge emotionally.

Wave 3's are typically the strongest technically but the end of wave 5's will emit the most emotion. For instance anyone still holding out hope for holding stocks (like looking at your 401K) will capitulate on the wave 5's. (And then of course the subsequent major bounce - in this case (2) - will cause them to curse their decision for bailing at the low).

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