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Thursday, May 14, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 May 2020

UPDATE:
Gold's chart, perhaps prices are on the move. The only requirement for this count is that it makes a higher high for wave [v]. Higher than $1788.8

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ORIGINAL POST (I should be back for more I'll post above)

I labeled the wave (i) low too early yesterday, it was a rookie wave counting mistake. In a bear wave of this magnitude that is being proposed, each subwave one should advance prices beneath the previous higher degree wave one.  In other words Minuette (i) of Minute [iii] should end counting lower in price than Minute [i].  Yesterday's low didn't quite make it but today did.

[On a side note, Minor wave 1 should finish lower than Intermediate wave (1) - which is the current March low. This guideline will strongly guide the wave counting process.]
As proposed yesterday, the broken neckline might be a backtest target for wave (ii). Note the overlapping waves inside wave (ii). We had one zizgag so far. but remember the conversation about zigzags...if one is not enough in price/time (usually price is the overriding factor) then the market may trace another to complete the correction (in this case upward wave (ii) corrective)
Regardless, if this is wave (ii) of [iii], it should end fairly quickly. We have a proposed target box. Wave (ii) of [iii] may have ended at the high today, but an overnight ramp and gap up open tomorrow would finish off the pattern nicely if it so chooses.  Then even heavier selling should commence in wave (iii) of [iii] down.

I'll make another comment about this chart specifically the down volume/decliner readings at the bottom of the chart.  If you were watching this chart unfold as I was, you could see the pressure building in the declining stocks, however the down volume was diverging a bit.  This down pressure will be a hallmark trait of any bear wave we count. At the very end could be a tremendous pressure that either trips a market circuit breaker or will compress and all selling that had to be done is over for a bit. Then a tremendous rebound and the pressure is relieved. We seen this in the big decline(s) of late 2008.

You should see this trait likely occur at the bottom of wave (iii) of [iii] and (v) of [iii] of 1, at the bottom of 1 of (3) and so on.  These internals help us mark important wave peaks.

The readings should be much higher as the wave degrees unfold. At the end of wave 1 of (3), you'll see even bigger off-the-chart readings. At the end of 3 of (3), well, I can only imagine the pressure the market will be under if they even let it trade...

The middle of any wave three event (known as a "third of a third") is the "oh shit" moment. This is the moment the majority of the people get surprised and pay attention. It happens going in an up market also. However in a bear market, the fear at three of three is palpable the higher the wave degree. So far we have only experienced a wave [3] of iii of (i) of [iii] of 1 of (3) event since the (2) peak.  That didn't garner much attention, but as we advance lower and get closer to the heart of [iii] of 1 of (3) and then even [iii] of 3 of (3) itself, it will command the public's attention!
The proposed count is heading toward one of our "oh shit" moment(s). You can tell the financial media hasn't woken up to to the fact yet that wave (3) down has likely started. But they will.

I should be back with more, I'll put it on the top so you can see more stuff.


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