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Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 November 2015

The 6 month yield seems to be on the move and that movement should drag up the 3 month yield.  And the 3 month yield will determine if the Fed raises rates or not in December.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 November 2015

Still going with the view that the market is tracing out a tremendous topping pattern for all-time's sake. The view is that the market is forming a long-winded right shoulder pattern of a head and shoulders topping process.

Looking at when the neckline started forming was in October of 2013!  The right shoulder could take quite a while (many months?) to completely form also. So we'll just keep plugging away.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 November 2015

Wilshire potential "base" channel of enormous proportions is in place. We'll see I guess. I expect another deep retrace up to get everyone quite excited again. If it breaks above the base channel, I would expect new all-time highs to be challenged if not taken out.
Global Dow weekly would look better if there was a push higher than wave [a] of 2 to form a proper three wave upward correction seen on a weekly scale.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 November 2015

Short term count is anyone's guess.
Medium term suggests some possibilities.
Oil near term is anyone's guess. We got the big move correct but the next few months could continue to be whippy. Technically, I don't see anything tipping us off to a clear direction medium term.
Gold big news is an ending diagonal triangle count. This infers that gold is in for a huge liftoff after the completion of wave (5)
USD. Worked off overbought and now poised for a wave five up.

But perhaps the most important chart is whats going on with short term rates. As you may know I am an advocate that high interest short term rates will absolutely crush the financial/corporate system. Why? Because unlike the late 1970's early 80's, there won't be a "stagflation" but instead a likely deflation coupled with high interest rates. This in my opinion is a deadly combination. I never imagined short term rates would be distorted so low for so long but they have been. However, technically rates are poised for a big breakout move.
And the Fed follows the market, they do not set them.  The 3 month yield is the highest it has been in 5 years and that is significant. I estimate that the Fed will have to hike rates by at least an 1/8 point if the 3 month yield moves toward .25.  They will be "muddled" if it hovers around .15 - .22 by the time of December's rate hike decision.  In any case, the Fed may hold off one more rate hike decision based on where the 3 month yield is in a few weeks, but the market is going to force their hand sooner or later because the 6 month count is pointing up.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 November 2015

Daily count shows proposed waves 1 and 2.
Proposed wave 2 in more detail.
Gold count. Elliott Wave International (click on my links left hand side of blog) suggested that a wave (5) ending diagonal triangle is likely the case and yes it does make sense as that count. Look for "overthrow" of the lower wedge line and then a sharp rebound higher. Gold sentiment is very low so it makes sense that this is a final wave down.
A favorite chart is the GDOW. Less than 38% retrace from peak at the close.