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Friday, October 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 October 2014

Biggest two week rise since the 2009 low. Yet it didn't yet trigger a Zweig Breath Thrust Event. Not that it won't - it must do that on Monday's session as it is the 10th day. My point is, that despite a 144 SPX point rise in a mere 7.5 days, it has not triggered a "breadth thrust event".
Needs to finish above the .618 red line to trigger a ZBT event on Mionday or else the time limit will have passed. It just might. We'll see.
The prediction is that the SPX will reach 1970 SPX. Why? Because I forgot I have this labeled as an extended Minute [v] of 1 down. And per labeling if the extended wave is five of any known impulse, then the retrace should go back to the Minuette (ii) of [v] of 1 down. That is 1970.26 SPX. That is per EW Principles (Frost/Prechter)

And despite the amazing seven day rally it will take a close above 1970 SPX to break the downtrend!
NYSE. Also targeting wave two of five down.
Bonds:
Backtest of the Monthly Wilshire?
Closed inside the lower trendline. 
Global Dow may portend the true fate of prices over the next few weeks
 
Gold:
Dollar exhibited the same long-term compression as the 6 month yield chart above. And it has seemingly broken out.
Oil:
CRB at long term support.




Thursday, October 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 October 2014

No ZBT event just yet anyway.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 October 2014

NOTE: I relabeled the wave degrees on the charts to reflect better the likely wave degree due to time and price patterns over the last many weeks. (It can always be adjusted later if need be in the longer term).

The GDOW chart may be the best wave chart at the moment to where prices may head over the coming days and perhaps weeks.(I often cite how well the GDOW traces waves). I will be watching this one closely.

As was mentioned last night, the GDOW bounce was weaker. It also has traced probably the clearest wave pattern since its orthodox peak.

First the weekly chart shows a truncated peak (less than a point!).
The hourly chart reveals a very nice EW pattern to Minor 1 down.  It would be preferable if there was a three wave bounce for Minor 2 up.  That would probably take us right about into the U.S. political elections in early November
The NYSE also traces a good pattern down.  It has retraced deeper above 50% which is of course good wave 2 territory.
The SPX has been the strongest. It has retraced above the 61.8 Fib mark.  Obviously if the GDOW holds up through early November and traces a nice [a][b][c] pattern, the SPX is likely also to do well. The only rule is that wave 2 must finish beneath 2019.26 SPX (peak).

I don't like this short term count, but hey, it has a sort of nice expanding symmetry to it.
The DJIA chart is also interesting. Not quite an official "backtest" of the broken trendline of the ending diagonal wedge just yet. Prices didn't come close enough. Remember, it took a full year to build that wedge. It need only take a 3-4 months to collapse back beneath its start point for it to look right.  It doesn't need to do it in only a week or two!


Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2014

It was about an 82% up day for the NYSE and 77% up ratio day for the NASDAQ Composite.  Our wave count from Friday is mangled a bit.

All we can say is that on a weekly scale, the market hit a lower Intermediate-sized channel line (green).  This has produced an Intermediate-sized bounce (perhaps).  The line was important for now.
The market has 4 days to produce another Zweigh Breadth Thrust event.  It would need to finish above .618. Not quite there yet. If it triggers, we must assume the market has a very good shot of going to new all-time highs at least for the Wilshire5000 and SPX.
The GDOW bounce is much less robust so far. There are divergences going on.
There is one other trendline that seems to be important and that is the down sloping line from peak. Possible count - take with a grain of salt.- just playing around at this stage. At .618 Fib, a wave [iii]?
Or the biggest expanding leading diagonal triangle you ever saw? Again, the down-sloping trendline is likely important to the bull/bear case. Many touch points. Look at the huge gap up!
CONCLUSION:
I don't have any smart short term counts. Either the market is in some kind of wave two (or four) bounce that will reveal itself in the wave pattern at a later time, or the market made an Intermediate low and will trigger a ZBT event and eventually make new market highs.  Isn't wave analysis simple and logical?  :)

The lower green channel line on the weekly (first chart) was important.  The down sloping trendline from peak shown on the last two charts is also likely important.  

If we have any chance of a bear case, shit will have to hit the fan soon and prices must decline and decline hard. I don't like either bear charts for short term counts, but its the best I can come up with.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 October 2014

Wave [iv] cannot enter into wave [i]'s price range. For the sake of argument, we'll call that 1926.03 on the SPX.
Bounce counts as a double zigzag perhaps.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 October 2014

Wave [iv] bounce. Simplified the wave labels. Wave [ii] went "sideways", wave [iv] alternated and is sharp.
Closed beneath the 1904 weekly pivot. 

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 October 2014

6th down day in a row for the DJIA. Yes, it wasn't much, but it was a lower close nonetheless.

Best guess count for the squiggles: