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Monday, April 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 April 2015


We have 2 pattern formations going on here.  Bearish rising wedge and ascending triangle.  Both will work in our count.  The wedge calls for possible "overthrow" of the upper line. The ascending triangle also calls for a thrust upward.




Thursday, April 16, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 April 2015

Updated count. Odds are that it makes a new all time high before finishing the wedge pattern

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 April 2015

An important event occurred today. A new intraday high on our Wilshire5000 ending diagonal count. In other words the minimal requirements for a valid ending diagonal wedge were met today.

On February 25th, the Wilshire peaked at 22,369.06 intraday marking the top of [a] of 3 of (5)
On March 23rd, the Wilshire topped at 22,389.10 marking the top of wave [c] of 3 of (5).
Today on April 15th the Wilshire made a minimum new high above wave 3 by peaking at 22,391.88.

So we have a valid wedge count in place.  Its also a virtual, nearly perfect, "triple top" spread over a 7 week period.
I'll end this post by showing a chart published tonight from Elliott Wave International (click my endorsement ads to the left so I get a small commission if you decide to buy one of their excellent products) of the persistent level of historic bullishness displayed by Investors Intelligence survey.

Can bullishness go higher and persist longer? Of course. But when aligned with a wave count of a potential deadly ending diagonal bearish wedge and a 7 week triple top formation in one of the broadest base market index (Wilshire5000), its a decent bet to go on the short side of things here.


Monday, April 13, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 April 2015

Will the final surge of an apparent wedge transpire? We don't know.  The wave count however allows for it.

Disturbing news about credit here and here.  Ultimately when the Total Credit reported by the Federal Reserve goes into any kind of contraction mode, the end is not far for this bubble.  A mere blip in 2008/09 created a 56% drop in equity prices.

Yes, we are all so stupid we cannot see it. Even I, an ultrabear, do not care anymore. We should very well care. But things have been put in motion a long time ago and its path was determined by social mood.  We cannot influence social mood's direction, merely try to ride its waves,

Price collapse in equity prices is whats called for  if the wedge is a true wedge.


Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 April 2015

Still wedging is all we can say about it for now.