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Friday, February 5, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 5 February 2016

If this support shelf breaks, prices are likely to make a lower low.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 4 February 2016

There is room for (iv) to go higher if it requires.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 2 February 2016

Resistance encountered at the neckline.
Note the form of the wave structure from pink (iii) to pink (iv) which best counts as an a-b-c countertrend move.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 1 February 2016

Reaching an important juncture in the short and medium term wave count.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 27 January 2016

Adding to our charts yesterday. Note how the VIX has "reset" to a much lower volatility level versus the August panic. Prices are lower than in August (and yet had fell pretty much the same amount) yet the VIX did not reach panic levels on the recent decline. This is an example I think of how the market works off oversold and works off overpanic via time. This fits perfectly in how wave theory unfolds.  The market seems to be setting itself up for a very big downdraft but in the meantime, the squiggles must play out first.

Best count options below:
The eventual big selling downdraft would be the downside target of the broken head and shoulders pattern for starters. Since it would be a "third of a third" - wave [iii] of 3 - it should be more panic than in August, and thus the VIX should go higher than in August.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Update 26 January 2016

This chart sums up the best count options. Wave (iv) may have peaked but after today's strong up day, that doesn't seem likely at the moment.  A backtest of the broken neckline would be a good place to start for bets I suppose for a wave (iv) target.

Note that the top ALT count target box - Minute [ii] of wave 3 down - overlaps with the primary count of wave (iv) of [i] down. So we'll just have to let things play out as they must.
Weekly View
Another view of the best count options using a shorter time scale and a bunch of channels to see if they can help.