Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Monday, August 15, 2011
Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 August 2011
My 1195 - 1205 wave [iv] target price range has been met. The 38.2% Fib has been reached - a common wave four retracement. However today was easily a 90% up day on the NYSE in both volume ratio and advancers. A follow-through upside day? It certainly qualifies. Yes, many people take these 90% up days with a grain of salt anymore due to the way these HFT robots all churn in the same direction but I still give them the respect they are due.
Therefore the strong internals might damage the bearish case of Minute [iv] of Minor 1 if we get even more robust upside. The market will need to reverse sooner rather than later or it just won't "look right" as a wave [iv]. The way the futures move overnight we'll see how it plays out.
Of course Minute [iv] can go all the way to 1250 SPX as long as it does not breach 1258 - the wave [i] low. But would that make sense? No if that happened, I'd have a hard time marking it a wave [iv].
I have an upper price range of 1215 - 1220ish SPX before it starts looking "stupid" as a wave [iv]. This is next resistance and a squeeze of 1200 shorts would do the trick.
THE ALTERNATE P[2] TRUNCATED COUNT:
When the market was falling severely in the recent downturn, many wavers on this board and including myself entertained a P[2] truncated count. It made sense as the resulting fall-off and price weakness was severe.
If it is a P[2] truncated count, then we simply have made a Minor 1 wave low at 1100 SPX. This of course means that the market is in Minor 2 up and is free to retrace as much as it wants as long as its not 100%.
This count implies the market is likely working on only Minute [a] of Minor 2 up. Today's robust internals and apparent follow-through day forces us to strongly consider this count. We won't make it the primary count just yet though. We'll give Minute [iv] a little more leeway - but not much more....
Therefore the strong internals might damage the bearish case of Minute [iv] of Minor 1 if we get even more robust upside. The market will need to reverse sooner rather than later or it just won't "look right" as a wave [iv]. The way the futures move overnight we'll see how it plays out.
Of course Minute [iv] can go all the way to 1250 SPX as long as it does not breach 1258 - the wave [i] low. But would that make sense? No if that happened, I'd have a hard time marking it a wave [iv].
I have an upper price range of 1215 - 1220ish SPX before it starts looking "stupid" as a wave [iv]. This is next resistance and a squeeze of 1200 shorts would do the trick.
When the market was falling severely in the recent downturn, many wavers on this board and including myself entertained a P[2] truncated count. It made sense as the resulting fall-off and price weakness was severe.
If it is a P[2] truncated count, then we simply have made a Minor 1 wave low at 1100 SPX. This of course means that the market is in Minor 2 up and is free to retrace as much as it wants as long as its not 100%.
This count implies the market is likely working on only Minute [a] of Minor 2 up. Today's robust internals and apparent follow-through day forces us to strongly consider this count. We won't make it the primary count just yet though. We'll give Minute [iv] a little more leeway - but not much more....
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Friday, August 12, 2011
Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 August 2011
An ideal price peak for Minute [iv] would be the triple Fib area between 1195 - 1204. In other words, 1200 resistance. It could be only (a) of [iv].
Possible squiggle count from an "(a)-(b)-(c)" bearish counter trend perspective. (c) practically equals (a) in points. I'd love to see a pop higher Monday toward 1195 - 1200 then a severe rollover and prices go down in either (b) of [iv] or Minute [v] itself. But I certainly ain't the only one who thought of that so we'll see.
The bottom line is the market had a monster up day yesterday and today can be considered some follow-through, but certainly not another 90% plus up day. Up ratio and volume on the NYSE and NASDAQ finished at about 60%.
If the market can pull off another big up day early next week and finish higher than say 1220, that puts the Minute [iv] count in jeopardy. But bonds were being bought today which may be signalling another setup for some heavy selling next week. 1200 will be tough to break back through and then hold as support.
With the McClellan's Oscillator back to only -8, the market is not oversold on a short term basis. Sentiment is horrible still but it is supposed to be at the lower depths of a Minor 1 wave. The key of course if lower lows than 1100 prior to anything higher than 1258 SPX. Thats a wide range yes.
In fact, the market certainly is in its "new" trading range of roughly 1100 - 1200. It may stay there a while in finishing Minute [iv], then Minute [v] down breaks under the range and Minor 2 takes us back through the range and pokes above.
Sellers are laying low for the moment. But a push higher, if it occurs Monday, should bring out some selling.
If the market can pull off another big up day early next week and finish higher than say 1220, that puts the Minute [iv] count in jeopardy. But bonds were being bought today which may be signalling another setup for some heavy selling next week. 1200 will be tough to break back through and then hold as support.
With the McClellan's Oscillator back to only -8, the market is not oversold on a short term basis. Sentiment is horrible still but it is supposed to be at the lower depths of a Minor 1 wave. The key of course if lower lows than 1100 prior to anything higher than 1258 SPX. Thats a wide range yes.
In fact, the market certainly is in its "new" trading range of roughly 1100 - 1200. It may stay there a while in finishing Minute [iv], then Minute [v] down breaks under the range and Minor 2 takes us back through the range and pokes above.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 August 2011
Primary count is Minute [iv] of Minor 1 is tracing out. It could take the form of a zizag, flat, triangle of some other complex combination. No matter what the form, at some point a wave four has a max price retrace point. This often occurs on the (a) wave of a wave four (for instance a contracting triangle the (a) wave is the peak price of the correction in the case of a bear wave).
So no matter the form we are looking for a max price peak.
The "control" of the wave count is iv of (iii) of [iii]. A move above this - 1215 SPX - can indicate something else than a wave [iv] may be occurring.
Slight variation in that [iv] will be "over" soon in a simple (a)-(b)-(c) fast-moving zigzag.
The overall premise of the primary wave count is that 1100 SPX will be breached to the downside prior to a move above the wave [i] low of 1258 SPX.
So no matter the form we are looking for a max price peak.
The "control" of the wave count is iv of (iii) of [iii]. A move above this - 1215 SPX - can indicate something else than a wave [iv] may be occurring.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
