Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 October 2011 [Update 4:56PM]

[Update 4:56PM: Here is the proposed Minor 2 count so far using the Wilshire 5000 30-minute chart.  Note the "look", the correct proportionality of it all and how wave action matches price action of support/resistance. That makes a good aesthetically pleasing chart.  It may not be correct in the long run, but for now it feels about right.

With the Zweig Breadth Thrust having tripped a few days back, the tenacity of the uprise is not surprising.

ORIGINAL POST
It seems wave (i) of [c] of Minor 2 up has extended far enough up so that wave (ii) of [c] down can backtest 1226-1230 as support.  That is the primary count.

Note the pattern where small sub-minuette (black) seem to be extend.  Hence, I have today as an extended v of (i).

A Minor 2 target north of 1300 SPX seems doable if this is merely wave (i) of [c].

A look at the daily.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2011 [Update 6:41PM]

[Update 6:41PM: I caution on proclaiming Minor 2 nearly over only because the GLOBAL DOW has not yet met its target. GDOW gives excellent waves as noted by the weekly chart. The second reason is the recent "Zweig Breadth Thrust" that triggered.

Wave [b] may be tracing a complex corrective or we get a wave (ii) down of [c] even after an early possible pop on Monday to finish (i) of [c]. Regardless, we should never ignore the GDOW in any projections for wave counts. And for now it appears the GDOW has a decent bit of work left in it for the rest of its Minor 2.

ORIGINAL POST
The ending diagonal for wave [v] of Minor 1 down was a warning that a violent reaction the opposite way (up) was about to occur. But the tenacity of the market is pretty amazing. Nothing but "bad news" out there and yet it is up 165 SPX points from only a few weeks ago and has landed a solid close above 1230.

There has not been much of a [b] wave yet it does sport a valid corrective 3-3-5 flat count. The move up from the 1197 low yesterday is not quite a 5 wave impulse move on the SPX nor Wilshire 5000.  But its an impulse on the DJIA and that index has broken out also.

Internals were pretty solid today.  We have to assume wave [c] of Minor 2 has started. Yet even so we might get an eventual Monday pullback which would be labeled (ii) of [c].

If [b] is still tracing a complex correction and today was a false breakout, we'll know soon enough I suppose. However +267 on the DJIA sure is hard to argue against.

 I like to use the Wilshire for form. The Wilshire has not taken out its previous wave [iv] of 1 high yet.  You can see a flat count for [b].  Early next week should resolve the count hopefully.

5 wave move up on the DJIA since yesterday. I'm too lazy to label em cause I know you can spot them.  May be due for a wave (ii) of [c] pullback.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 October 2011

Price action again today supports the notion of a [b] wave correction such as a triangle.  The thing to remember about triangles is that we tend to want to rush the labeling too early.  Hence the "or (c)" I have between 1190 and 1197 sometime tomorrow or so.  So patience is needed. 

One wave should be a complex pattern, if not (c) then (d).   

Lots of possibilities with a [b] wave, almost too numerous to predict. However the main theme of wave 2 is that eventually [c] will break above 1233 and take us to a Minor 2 peak.  We can only guess at the level for now.  200 DMA is still a good target.

E-minis

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 October 2011 [Update 5:40PM]

[Update 5:40PM: Perhaps the market is about to embark on a sideways chop - ala late 2009.  Here is that chart and if one can recall, the up and down gaps were nauseating. Perhaps the market will be doing the same here and form a complex double three pattern, not necessarily a textbook triangle.  This 2009 chart is an excellent example of an apparent [a]-[b]-[c] market move.

Recall the "Dubai debt crisis" that played out at that time and the e-minis plunged overnight only to recover. My how we have upgraded a sovereign notch or two.

[Update 5:19PM: Excellent technical synopsis of the current market http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-at-a-crucial-juncture-2011-10-19?dist=afterbell  I've been saying pretty much what he says in this article. 1220-1230 resistance. 1190 support followed by an 1170-range support.   A break under 1170 damages the rally a bit and the market will be pressed to search for support. For the bulls they are seeking a solid close above 1230ish.

[Update 4:55PM: GDOW is a very nice wave pattern.  Blue box virgin wave space is minimal wave 2 target.

ORIGINAL POST
Primary count is [b] of Minor 2 up is tracing out.  Specifically we are looking at a running barrier triangle with a lower barrier limit of 1190. If 1190 is breached to the downside, then its not a barrier triangle as I have it currently labeled.

A decent close alternate is that the 1233 SPX high of yesterday was the actual [a] wave high and the market is now just beginning its [b] wave pullback. Obviously if this is the case, we are looking at just the beginning of the [b] corrective period and we will not be sure how deep the pullback will be nor what corrective form it will take.

But for now we'll keep an eye on the 1190 SPX level for a valid triangle count.

Bigger picture: