Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 April 2020

Today's strong internals suggest that it was the kickoff of wave C of (2).

Since wave A was a 5-3-5 [a]-[b]-[c] zigzag, it might be prudent to look for another 5-3-5 zigzag to form for wave C. This would give us a "double zigzag" for wave (2).

We are probably nearing or at the top of wave [a] already. Looking for some price weakness in wave [b], then wave [c] of C of (2) to take us higher.

Double zigzags exist to make up price. The first zigzag was not enough of a retrace. Therefore the market might perform a second zigzag in order to take the wave (2) price retrace to a more acceptable level (somewhere near or above 50% retrace of the entire drop).

And of course the underside of the channel is a solid target.

And here's the channel zoomed in. It may not be exact, but its fairly close.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 April 2020

Primary count is that wave B of (2) is still tracing out. It retraced deeper in price. It looks like it is not finished either. Monday will be telling.

To the bottom of the marked trading range for B?

And of course there is still the chance this is merely wave 5 of (1) as shown below. However,  there is no alternation between corrective waves (2) and (4) which is not desirable. They are both sharp zigzag type correctives which is one reason this is not the top count. Also it doesn't channel well if this is 5 of (1). You can see that from the first and second charts above.

However if the market traces out down to (1) and bounces in (2) then that's what we would count it as.

Of course, ultimately wave (3) is predicted by this blog and we may well be in it already so counting squiggles is perhaps just an exercise to keep our minds occupied. Wave (3) would likely settle down to the next major price support area of the past decades and that would be previous market major tops.  Just a guess.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 April 2020

Yesterday's low held where we marked "B" on the Wilshire. This does not mean that B is over yet. Perhaps the market needs more consolidating to do. Perhaps there is more selling pressure for B.

This is where it can get tricky counting squiggle waves.  The entire Intermediate red (2) is corrective in nature and it can take several forms. But since its a wave (2) it typically retraces to a Fibonacci 50% (or often more). However, in this case, since we are all ****ed, I'm leaning to less than a robust retrace.

Possible pathing options for our primary count 1.) B is over, we are starting up in C of (2)  2.) B needs sideways consolidation prior to marching higher in C of (2)  3.) B will turn downward in price a bit more before finding its footing.

In these situations the market tends to favor a sideways trading consolidation move and that B is probably not over yet.  If this happens we might wind up counting any consolidation as part of wave C anyway.

The weekly shows the lower bull market channel line still makes a nice target for Red (2).

And here is that lower Bull market channel line viewed up close on our daily chart.

The above chart makes a nice stopping point for wave (2). It will have pierced the big virgin wave space (typical) and it will have "kissed" the lower channel bull market line one last time prior to wave (3) down which will absolutely crush this market. This implies (2) will retrace less than a typical 50%.  But that's ok I think in this case and I wouldn't count on anything more.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 April 2020

As was stated yesterday, usually a B wave will retrace at least 38.2% of the rise. Today we got that as a minimum. This does not mean B wave is over.

We have a target box for B and a target box for C.

Note the top alt is that wave (2) already peaked and we are now in wave (3) down. However, despite the nearly 1000 Dow down day, internally on the NYSE the declining volume ended the day at 6.24:1.  A bad day for sure but not a 90% down day for volume. If that picks up and follows through with more down pressure, we might be in wave (3).

But for now, we'll keep the primary count the way it is.

Wave (2) target would be either one or both thin blue virgin wave spaces created in (1) down.

Finally, the other top alt count is that wave 4 of (1) peaked and we are now just going down to finish wave (1).  This is less favorable because the entire structure doesn't adhere to channeling guidelines when you inspect the structure closer (see 1st chart above).  There were just 50 bazillion, million people thrown out of work (worldwide), so we'll assume the market will continue to operate at a speedier timeline as outlined in my primary count(s) in the charts above.

Yesterday's CPCE. 5 and 10 day MA's have come well out of panic territory. Eventually the market is setting up for an even bigger panic once we confirm wave (3) down is in works. 

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March 2020

Primary count is that wave B of (2) is continuing to develop. It would be normal for a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the recent rally.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 March 2020

Trying to guess the squiggle count.  Top count is that wave B of (2) is forming.  Just what form it takes we'll have to see it unfold a bit more.

Not oversold anymore by a long shot.

I'm waiting on chart data for my Breadth Thrust and CPCE charts. I'll update later tonight after the data comes in.

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 March 2020

We were looking for immediate B wave weakness and today didn't disappoint. Corrective waves can take many forms so ultimately we don't know how the over Intermediate (2) structure will develop. However we do know wave twos typically retrace the entire wave ones usually at least 50% or very often more.