Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 April 2021

Updated counts. The primary count is that wave 4 of (5) is playing out in some form or fashion. We have the key wave marker in place.

UPDATE: Its not clear how many Capitol Hill police officers were vaccinated prior to or on January 6th but this Washington Post story on Jan 19th implicates that at least some may have been.

UPDATE COVID:

Ok lets talk COVID vaccine. The China Virus, most likely produced and released (accident? - it only takes one person to commit evil!) at Wuhan's level 4 lab with direct funding from Dr Death himself...Fauci). I have just realized the connection between the Capitol Hill police officer that died of strokes and the possible connection to the COVID "vaccine". All I will say is this: This guy being a first responder, likely had access to the COVID vaccines in early January. Did he die from the vaccines????  No one will say if he had gotten the shot or not. I am not on Facebook, maybe someone can check if it was in his timeline.

Karl made a very great discovery. An in-depth study was conducted on the COVID 19 "spike" protein and may in fact be the cause of blood coagulation that has temporarily sidelined the J&J and AstraZeneca shots. The study is not "peer reviewed". And I don't think they are in a hurry to do so.

So basically the shots (all of them) trick your body into producing the "spike" protein so that your body produces anti-bodies as a result.  Yet the SPIKE PROTEIN "MAY" ITSELF BE PATHOGENIC WHICH IS CAUSING THE CLOTS AND SUCH HORRIBLE DEATHS. 9660 DEATHS COMBINED U.S. AND EUROPE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE VACCINES. Don't take my word for it, research it yourself. And this is only what is reported to those official websites. How many more go unreported??

ADDENDUM: 2 of the other people who died on January 6th was reported as heart attacks.  (What are the odds of that being "natural"?) Were these also directly related to the COVID "vaccine" in which so many reports to the VAERS website lists heart attacks as an associated event??? People attending the rally would have likely been a decent amount of those who had already been vaccinated because they felt they were immune.

Yes I am speculating my opinion, but the odds of 2 heart attacks and a stroke victim in such an event is more than just questionable. But not if you had gotten the injection. Did these 3 people have the injection prior to January 6th? Its more than a fair question!

ORIGINAL POST

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COUNTS:

Well, we didn't get the Monday pop as was proposed, yet prices behaved within the larger Elliott Wave context. The best count might be that Minor wave 4 has started to trace out. This form could drag on for days/week(s), basically a sideways consolidation.  In a wave four, the sideways consolidation usually is accompanied by growing negative sentiment.  This is how wave fours work, sentiment -wise. Prices move sideways in a usual consolidation manner and sentiment is less and less bullish due to the lack of price advance in which the preceding wave three was all about. Then they pop higher in a wave five.

Ok will post more. Just testing things here.

Ok, Later:

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Counts

The Wilshire 5000 monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly are all into "overbought" territory.

It seems to be since there is no resistance, prices will run to the upper wedge line.  The immediate squiggle count supports this. This suggests a pop up on Monday. 

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 April 2021

PEAK MANIA

I could go on and on about how insane things have become with regards to the current financial mania that has gripped the world. I could talk about the proliferation of SPACS - open ended checks. I could talk about digital currency mania where the value of a bitcoin has gone up a gazillion % since its inception.  I could remind those who push it that currencies are not supposed to go a bazillion % as a matter of being a currency. How can we possibly buy and sell things in Bitcoin if we think its inflation (or deflation) will render our purchase silly just a month down the road?

I could talk about the newest craze of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) or whatever the hell it is. I suppose its like Bitcoin. Regardless you cannot even "see" your investment. Its in the computer or something or you get a nice framed certificate of whatever. Yet people think this is just dandy.  What the hell are you going to physically accomplish by buying a tweet for $2.9M?  I mean I guess charity (a lot of fraud in charities anyway) is what its supposed to buy, but really are the buyers hoping to flip the buy and double their money down the road?

What next? Will Jack Dorsey fart in a glass jar and sell that for $3.9M? Or pledge the proceeds to charity? 

The mania must surely be near the top. 

I could talk about record amounts of debt of all kinds. You know the story. Or margin debt. Just some random graph I googled on the internet. Can you see the clear Elliott waves?  I added some wave markers just in case!

I could rant about Covid madness particularly the vaccines but Karl Denninger does it better so I'll just link.  Its another example of the madness all around us. Line up like a guinea pig for your shot!

Was the 1918 "Spanish Flu" a result of vaccines? Most probably. 

Part 2 here. 

Here is another good Covid online source.

And American Frontline Doctors.

Again with the ability to find out on your own to make informed decisions via the internet, people are mostly sheeple and refuse to look.  One woman I know might have Covid but every suggestion I make is shot down with conviction for whatever reason.  Well, my final response was "Well, if your not going to research anything and don't want to consider anything, then I hope you don't choke to death, good luck." (No I actually didn't say it quite that blunt, but yeah I was blunt.)

I just think its all sheer madness. 

I know of another woman who was pressured into getting a shot because she is a health care worker and got the J&J just before they shut it down and she is so pissed at herself and regrets it deeply even though it was last week. I truly hope she is fine in the long run but at least she came to her senses.

She realized this one little simple thing; you cannot "undo" the shot.

You can be a drunk and get sober. You can be a crackhead and get sober. Your body might even repair itself back to a "normal state". But the shot? Again good luck. I hope the 23% and counting of the country who are fully "vaccinated"  don't start getting terrible afflictions come this October. Terrible over-reactions to either the constantly mutating Covid or even a common cold. 

My prediction is that the vaccination rate for the country will top off at a Fibonacci 38.2%. Why? Because the more jabs they give, the more bad things will come out and the more people will wonder what the hell they were thinking. 

Reports today that people are dying of Covid anyway even after being vaccinated will come out more and more.

I still have hope people will wake up to the tyranny that is all around us. I am confident they will.

Nah, they won't and the crap is going to hit the fan.

COUNTS

Everything is hitting on all cylinders for the Primary count. It appears prices want to run toward the upper wedgeline. There is no resistance left anywhere in the market so I don't see why not. The Great Mania must peak!

Squiggles

Ok. Here is the main reason I always wanted to switch my wave degrees one degree higher. Its the brilliant Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International (EWI) DJIA/PPI chart. I can't beat this so I show it in fair use and I encourage you to become a FREE EWI Club Member. 

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I added the arcs of social mood in blue, green and pink but the underlying count is all his.

You can see we are at a cycle wave V since the 2009 low which makes perfect sense.

My monthly chart, I felt like populating the count some more. I just painted as it seems to count best. I usually don't detail the rise in the 1980's and 90's but I took a stab at it because it was empty. I wish Stockcharts had data that went back further.

Have a safe night all!

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 April 2021

Ok, things have been marching along nicely for the revamped counts this week. Again, all charts seem to be aligned in about the same spot in the count. Best guess is that today's peak was Minute wave [iii] of 3 of (5) and that the pullback is the beginning of a corrective wave [iv] of 3 of (5). Next best guess is that today's peak was the top of 3 of (5) itself and today's pullback was the beginning wave of forming Minor 4 itself. 

However it would look nice if the market formed a small Minute [iv], peaked again at [v] of 3 first. So we will go with that premise for now. 

It may not overthrow its "wedge" but it is overthrowing the Cycle wave uppermost channel line.

NYSE

Composite getting close to a new all-time high which the count predicts. Again, perhaps today was peak of [iii] of 5 of (5) which most charts seem to suggest.

DJIA. The most goofiest chart. 

I took yet another crack at its ugly squiggles...again, the theme being its probably looking for the top of [iii] then 3 itself. So the charts have all married back up and that is a normal thing in a peaking process. This is another reason to think this is Minor 3 of (5). 

Minor 3 is where they would be best re-aligned with each other. Then later when Minor 4 and 5 plays out, they may diverge a bit again.

CPCE. Yeah still nailed down. Those aren't your short term, 3, 5, and 10 day moving averages. Those are 10, 30, 90 and 180 Day!  This ain't your grandfather's CPCE!

Oh, and here is the 3,5, 10, and 30. Just pure gamma baby.

Bonus chart of the NYSE.  The NYSE alt count has a "classic" ending diagonal triangle wedge with overlapping waves 4 and 1. It touched the top line today and fell back. This pattern really doesn't work on anything else but it caught my eye and the (3) and (4) actually fit better on this chart rather than the above. 

I can't assume the "peak" is not in. It very well may be. Buts its an alternate count all the same.

 

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 April 2021

I have been consolidating and updating all my usual charts based on the now preferred primary count which I outlined in yesterday's post. Once I applied the same wave formations to many other chart types, I was amazed at how things look now on almost each chart.  Even better, they are all now "aligned" with each other in the same wave 3 of (5).  This is very much preferable. After many months of scattershot meanderings of all the various indices, they have now all seemingly realigned in a clear manner.  

Lets start with the Wilshire charts.

I made a new 30 minute squiggle. Best count is that we are looking and then trying to confirm the top of Minor 3 of (5):

I accidentally left "Primary Count" on my wedge chart in yesterday's post. Its not a count per se, its just a postulation that everything the market is doing seems to be working in a giant ending diagonal triangle (EDT) wedge that has been "stretched" due to the insane leverage and volume being deployed since March 2020. 

So, instead of the usual example - shown on chart - produced without leverage which has an "A-B-C" count and look and overlapping waves (1) and (4) we get actual Wilshire on the left.

The RSI pattern on the Wilshire Daily (along with NYSE breadth thrust chart below) actually supports the idea of this count very much.  In other words, peak RSI occurred not in a subwave three of three where it typically does but at the top of a big wave one (1) which is more indicative of an ending diagonal wedge.  And wave (3) and (5) get weaker and weaker in a "classic" wedge (shown on right) and the actual current RSI pattern of the proposed count matches that what we might expect of a huge Fibonacci 13 month ending diagonal triangle. 

In other words, I postulate that the market is actually in a huge EDT for the final wave of Grand Supercycle [III], but the mandatory wave (1) and (4) price overlap is simply elongated and doesn't exist due to the historic leverage in this market. Yet the RSI pattern fits the example on the right. And the current wedge pattern is still discernable on the Wilshire. 

And, finally, the typical "A-B-C" count of a "classic" EDT wedge as shown in the example actually translates to the real Wilshire shown on the left. Making "impulse" patterns since 2020 is driving people crazy because the substructure of each major subwave is scattershot (just like in a "classic" EDT). Yet the chart below explains and solves all those problems.

Conclusion?: This is a dangerous market because extremely leveraged, wedge-shaped ending diagonal triangles of this magnitude implicates absolute exhaustion and collapse will follow.

I present, you make up your own mind. The market is trying to always fool us because there are countless technicians looking to glean an edge. A "classic" wedge is so easy to spot in wouldn't follow what people would expect, therefore it isn't occurring (and the leverage doesn't let it occur)

Revamped NYSE, DJIA, COMPOSITE counts etc.

Hey look at Tesla give some credit here! We got the pop expected at least toward (c).

NYSE Breath Thrust Chart. You can clearly see internals are waning.  Tremendous explosion off the 2020 low. Then 2 significant breadth thrust "events" with a significant negative event sandwiched in between.  Wave (3) managed to break over the upper event red line at 61.5 but not much since on waning overall volume (see Wilshire weekly chart above) and waning NYSE internal measures as shown on the NYSE chart above.

Conclusion: The counts look good.

10 year yield. When that high RSI registered I immediately had noted that it was not likely the high in prices...that has panned out so far. Its a typical RSI spike pattern that is embedded in a subwave three of three of some sort.