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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stick a Fork In It (Big Update Sentiment Discussion 2am)

Update  1AM, 1 Jan 2010:

Some good discussions in comments. I think everyone is eagerly awaiting what 2010 brings to the table.  I think sentiment-wise bears are scared.  Actually indifferent is probably a better word.

Yes perhaps the market doesn't have retail investors on board in droves but how many times do you think you can fool the common Joe?  A crash in 2000, a crash in 2008. Most have seen enough. But worse yet, most don't even have money to invest anyway.  And the young people who were not of investment age in the 90's are not involved as the older folks.

Regardless, the rules they have placed on so many 401K accounts actually hurts the Ponzi. For instance where I work, we are limited to a mere 12 transactions a year between funds and 30 day hold rules. If I wanted to invest in an upswing market, I better darn well be sure its not going to crash in 30 days or else I can only watch my savings plunge.

Talking about sentiment and bears, I think we can all agree that the market has trained us to not short. Or at least not aggressively.  There is a "buy the dip" mentality ingrained.  Now that won't keep the market up, but its sure to support a plunging market and its sure to cause doubt every step of the way.

Most bears have resigned themselves to the fact that the market is manipulated to the point that it can be outright controlled.  Or that we cannot "fight the Fed". Sure. Ok. And when the Fed "drains liquidity" they control it then too. There is a correlation of course. It takes real money to provide real market moves this is no doubt.

But isn't everyone convinced Brother Ben will continue to throw the kitchen sink at the market from here to eternity?  Stop and think about the conventional wisdom about how the Fed controls everything.  How do you square the logic of The Fed draining liquidity and also keeping their primary "plunge Protection" schemes going full blast? Are not these diametrically opposed actions? Which wins out and why and can you foresee it?

Do they really control interest rates or do they react to what the market does?  When interest rates go up via natural market forces, will they not raise the rates they do control in response? So which is it?

None of it is logical. For if the Fed could control things why did the market crash 900 SPX points in 17 months in the first place? Couldn't they have just kept things afloat and avoided all this?

Let me tell you a secret: Ok here it is:  The Fed, bought a lot of fraudulent MBS junk and they are in a pickle. They are hiding the biggest Ponzi ever to exist on the planet. It resides in dark pools and there is a hydra monster lurking inside.  Secret number 2: Congress is utterly clueless.  The nation's brightest do not reside in the Capitol. They enable the Ponzi to grow at an exponential rate every year and we the people are becoming aware that its all a shell game. Secret number 3: No one is in control of anything.

Law of Nature: No one can control social mood.

Yes they rigged the Ponzi as much as they can, but until they outright confiscate and ban people from selling assests, they cannot stop the coming plunge in the stock market. There is simply too much debt to go on functioning in any kind of basic, rational manner. It is beyond insanity .  It is a nightmare.  And much of it is criminal.

Let me ask you a question: If the market were to go up to 1160 SPX would you short it?  Yes? then why do you think its going to give you the opportunity to do that? How about 1200?

If I told you in February that the market would finish the year at 1115 SPX, and if I asked would you aggressively short it, what was your response?  First a laugh then you naturally would have said, you would borrow your Grandma's money to short it.  Now here we are. Whats the prevailing attitude among even the permabears?

It is one of defeat, remorse, regret even though, in general the market hasn't done a whole lot at all in 3+ months. Must I remind you the SPX hit 1080+ in mid September and now we sit at merely 1115 and only after a low volume holiday rally? Did that 35 points crush your wallet or was it merely the churn? True other indexes and individual stocks flew but shorting FAS at $92 still looks pretty good yes?

Ah but the pyschology. Its not that the market has advanced in great stages since September its that it  hasn't dropped that is so demoralizing to bears. So the sideways net churn has pushed the bears right out of the market. And now a lot of upper targets to 1160 or 1200 + are still painted even though the wave structure nor technicals doesn't necessarily seem to agree.

And what about technicals? I show this SPX chart and it sure looks bearish to me! Why all of a sudden do technicals merit the talk of "being strong"?  Is it based on old paradigm stuff like 20 month MA crosses or monthly BB hits or whatever? Is it the advance/decline issues that, by the way, appear to be at an all-time peak which means they are ripe to crash? Hello? Bubble anyone???

I mean every technical adviser I read on mainstream news stories has a "well, longer term I'm bearish, but for now I see strength" or some such crap. What is it? You bearish or bullish? It seems to me that depressionistic undertones have set in but old school thinking keeps him looking for upside, particularly after a glorous 10 month rally. I say thats bullish. Cause he'll buy the big dip....always...

Can anything technical be trusted when those old bull market, cycle-wave technical "sure-things" became the "norm"?  Yes they are useful, but they are not all-knowing. My basic point is this: technicals will not prepare you for a crash nor even warn you.  But yet in my book, they are warning. Its just that at sentimental peaks we ignore the warnings and focus on the stuff that will keep the current trend going in the same direction of the current trend.

The churning out of debt and the debt promises illogical math can be spotted by a 5th grade math student.

Indeed I spotted the same when I was merely 12.  I used to think, and it bothered me, how can we ever pay back $200B? (mind you this was 3 decades ago) Well we cannot. And now its trillions as a couple hundred billion seems to be chump change. But of course its not.

But again back to sentiment. Yes we all "admit" to being bears, but admitting and acting upon it are two differing things. How many times have you heard in the last 3 months that "so and so" is long term bearish but he or she can see short term strength through "X" quarter of whatever?

I am excited. I was waiting for this time.

When in September, I met a person I didn't know and he was a retail investor who I perceived didn't know squat about the stock market yet "talked" like he knew it all and traded on the side apparently a bit. This person told me that "there is a big crash coming in September, everyone talks about it", I knew right then that this year was likely doomed to a long slow churn as I had dreamed up back in the Spring. I mentioned this stuff back in September in a few posts and it always gnawed on me since.

Here was a rather flippant guy (hehe kind of like me I guess) who thought he knew what he was doing (not that I do, but hey he didn't know much about anything really) that was going on and on about how the market was going to crash and how everyone knew it, I realized that bears were likely in for a long year. I mean when I heard this guy talk, my heart shrank knowing that if he was so damn sure that it was coming down in September or October or latest November, then surely it won't.

Am I sure its coming down starting in January? Well of course not I'll tell you. But I have a strange confidence that I felt back in early March when I started to buy 401K long holdings.  This isn't wishful thinking anymore and I have had some of that for sure.  Indeed I wish the market rises from here to complete another wave and put a bow on top of it all!

But I have learned that waiting for that final up or down wave may not come if the previous wave came out of a triangle. And so I suppose it to be so here too. As far as the larger count, this is sharp historic rally that smacks of Primary sized waves that fits nicely into a known EW structure of a triple zigzag.  The .618 ratio of  corrective P2 versus P1 is almost perfect as is the retrace value of 50%+.

Technicals are actually weak in my book and my gut tells me that its time.

Heck, the logic tells me its time. What fund manger wants to hang out and be the last sucker out of the door come January?  Is there no profit taking in this rally?

You can only use the "well everyone expects it to drop so it won't excuse for so long".  Eventually it peters out and loses strength. Thats what the sideways 3 month grind did and that guy in September that was sure the market was going to crash likely has changed his tune.  I don't see any more media stories on questioning if equities have come "too far too fast" as they did back in September and October. Now that the juiced ecomomic numbers have come out, it is no longer questioned much at all.

Now the focus is on how much rally we can expect out of 2010. How about a crash?

Yes its something that cannot be ignored. We had 2 crashes in less than 10 years, you really cannot make people forget or ever push the thought out of their minds completely I imagine. But what the market can do is take all the bears and put them in a state of "permadoubt".

How many fund mangers are licking their chops at buying equities at 1000 again? How about 900? 800? 700? Yes lots if not all. A permanent market above some fictisocus XXXX number is always sited.  What number do you think the Japanese sited in their ongoing 20 year bear market? "stocks will never go below 20000 again for the Nikkei? 10000? They are still asking...

Yes one more spasm squiggle on Monday would be just fine by me and make a nice complete waveform.  But I suspect its not coming to a new peak. It just feels right.

I ask, again, would you short stocks if they went to 1200?  How about at 1150 and willing to hold through the pain?  Well why would the market give you that opportunity?

Happy New Year everyone!

Log Scale suggests its over.  Look at that perfect line kiss.  Also note the double negative divergence on the SPX. First at the 2007 top, and then the same telltale signs at this week's high.

You ever see a day where the high of the day is the opening and the low of the day is the closing?

Ever see a year open at high of day and close at low of day?

My prediction is 2010 will be like one big bear day....

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 December

Just looking at the Wilshire and NASDAQ, you could label the move down as a wave [iv] low.  But the SPX and DJIA along with other sub indexes are in serious trouble.  SPX closed under 1116 which is bearish in my opinion. The DOW is clearly back inside the recent trading range but more importantly, the end of day plunge took it under the rising bear trendline. 

I think you all know how I feel: that this market is overdue for a major selloff and that there is a pent-up demand to sell and perhaps sell hard.   We have been tracking a weakening sideways motion in ultra low volume environment for 3 days now.  

Mondays are usually a continuation, as a rule of thumb, from Fridays.  But this is a new month, quarter, year and indeed, decade.  So we'll see how Monday plays out as real volume should start to show back up.

Minis (update 1:27pm)

Lots of probes of 1880 but rejected yet again...

The market has obeyed this trendline in the DJIA now for 10 months. As Robert Prechter likes to say, I didn't make this trendline, the market did.  You can see it requires ever more and more up moves to keep from doing a cliff dive.

I am guessing a spasm higher is coming next Monday but then a hard reversal seems to be in the cards and a very hard selloff ensue.  I am not just saying this out of wishful thinking, after all the wave structure happens to agree. If there is to be a Minute [v] to C of (Z) of [2], then indeed, thats the top.

I wouldn't want to be long when this trendline breaks with authority.

Here is a simplified version of what the overall "C' wave appears to consists of.  We are seeking confirmation of Minute [iv] .  Obviously the low volume environment is helping to enable the sideways drift. Minute [iv] could be taking the form of a complex double three or so.

Here is what EWP says about the reason why double three's take place:

"In a combination, the the first pattern often constitutes an adequate price correction. The doubling or tripling occurs mainly to extend the duration of the corrective process after price targets have been substantially met. Sometimes additional time is needed to reach a channel line or achieve a stronger kinship with the other correction in an impulse."

So in this case, maintaining upper support appears paramount. We can see that on the SPX that there is simply not much room to correct in price downward and maintain a breakout above 1113 -1116.  Same here on the Wilshire you can see overall support fairly easily.   If the SPX breaks below 1116, then it could very well fail or at the least morph into an ED situation which is obviously a bearish ending pattern.

But for the Wilshire, if we entertain a channel, the price is moving slowly to the right to meet that channel. It doesn't have to be exact of course but as the above theory states in EWP, "to achieve a stronger kinship" with the previous correction. Minute [ii], as I have labeled here, is a deep sharp correction that carved a big potential up channel. So Minute [iv] is playing along..

The thick support layer I have at the 38% FIB retrace is also a logical price retrace for the Wilshire or somewhere just above it.  Its trying to hang on to upper support but things aren't looking great.

By the way this is why I got into the habit of shorting a wave [iii] top (and selling a wave 3 bottom), particularly a thrust out of what appears to be an ascending triangle.
You just never know how the rest of the pattern will play out. Remember the missing wave 5 at the March lows? Triangle thrusts will keep you guessing.

I am about fully short and am hoping for higher prices to go leveraged short in a wave [v] but I'll obviously wait to see what happens on Monday, January 4th.

At this stage of the game, it appears the indexes are just trying to hang on until the New Year and with no big sellers just yet, I wouldn't doubt it. The double three triangle has failed but still fits into an overall count.

Minute [iv] seems to be still unfolding (at least for the DOW) is the best count so far...

Probing the 1880 level.  Its possible to make an ascending triangle out of it all. Its certainly not a textbook triangle so nothing is certain. But then again its usually the non-textbook ones that work.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Dow Jones Industrial Squiggles (Added Transports)

UPDATE: (10:49pm)  Added transports too.

I supposed that the Transports was in some kind of expanding ending diagonal move last week, but now it too has apparently morphed into a triangle with a complex (b) wave (of which triangles should exhibit at least one when its a large triangle such as this).

The Dow squiggles are presenting a very clear potential count that cannot be ignored. Due to the DOW not clearly breaking above its December trading range as other indexes, using the B wave low is probably best.

I presented a count today that showed a possible top and a triangle tracing out intraday.

After I posted it, it broke upwards which is when I realized I maybe had the triangle upside down.  Probably guilty of bias. The only logical way a triangle (and it certainly counts well as a triangle) can really be in that position after a complex sideways move is a double three with a triangle in the final position.   Kenny also nailed this potential pattern in his update

I don't entirely trust the thing but it stacks up well in a completely revamped DJIA squiggle count which is a very nice count.  EWI showed a DJIA squiggle count but they show the peak as being in and their count leaves out labeling on a few squiggles (which I don't like to do).  Sometimes shoehorning a count and ignoring a bump or 2 is a red flag that we are all guilty of from time to time.

But I'll take the flipside and suppose it may not be quite over yet for the DJIA. And with all the indexes trading in a tight range last few days, I don't see why the DOW wouldn't squeak a new high along with most other things.

I really, really like my new count and its exciting when even the sub-subwaves (not labeled) show little 5 wave impulse moves which I would have labeled but Stockcharts only allows so many characters.

At any rate, what is so nice is that there are clear markers that would indicate failure of this pattern. And all it need to do is squeak a new high.

I think we are real close. Maybe tomorrow has a squeaky new peak and Monday really is a MASH-THE-SELL-BUTTON kind of day...but perhaps after a squeak opening.

Keep an eye on this chart, I have it on my stockcharts public list.

Once in a Blue Moon

ADDED a Nasdaq 15 minute chart:

I must be restless and bored as here is yet another variation on the squiggles using the aggregate Wilshire 5000 index.  This supposes that the B wave ended where I show the SPX B wave ended (see my update post below).  It does not matter really, it all suggests the same thing: Minute wave [v] to new highs.

We are seeking "C".

As Kenny pointed out this morning and I have shown on my hourly charts throughout the last 5 months, the RSI on the hourly usually peaks on either (iii) of [iii] or [iii] itself. Looking at all the hourly charts (again see my SPX hourly) I think you can agree that the RSI has peaked for wave [iii].  A subsequent wave [v] typically, nay almost always to a "T", betrays itself to be a "top" or wave [v] because the resulting negative divergence shows the upside momentum waning and a correction or consolidation in order.

And since we suppose this is the final Intermediate zigzag of P2, the top of C should mark, in theory, the top of P2.

I broke the Wilshire down using base, acceleration, and deceleration channeling technique. It works nicely if today was a wave [iv] low. I still see a triangle on today's intraday squiiggles and I have shown this to be a final triangle in a "double three" sideways formation for wave [iv].   It all makes somewhat sense.

So if this is the correct reading, where will we find wave [v] peak?

I cannot pretend to know that answer. Since this structure I show is not tied to any inherent ED patterns or limitations by EW rule, it is free to run as high as it must.  Since wave [iii] is not the shortest, therefore the final Minute [v] has freedom of movement to do what it will do come January 4th.  And that is how it should be I think.

Now mind you, if stocks took a big dump right here and now starting tomorrow that would be fine with me, as I have a valid count that I showed last night.

But since there is no impulse pattern down, and indeed the market has remained net sideways, I must assume this is merely a Minute [iv] structure of some sort.

As I said, i have no insight into how 2010 opening trades will play out.  They could just as likely juice the futures and it spasms open higher and breaks every stop on the book until every short is washed out of the system for all I know.  After all, I don't suppose every fund manager will have his finger on the sell button right out of the gate.....but he or she just might.

We shall see. Either way my excitement grows!

I look at this next rise as a supreme opportunity to short sell a market at such expensive prices that only come along every once in a blue moon (of which there is one occurring New Year Eve!)

Its only fitting.

When polled in late February, most people stated they would salivate over the chance to short stocks at such lofty prices again if given the opportunity in only 10 months time.  (You would have in fact been laughing if you knew 1130 would be dabbled in again - but  here we are). So now that time has probably finally come and, not ironically, the amount of committed bears is the lowest it has been since 1987.  

Baffled, bloody and worn out with short losses, I don't blame you. But I will go leveraged short ( I already have shorts on QLD) which I do not do because the initial drop may go very very far down indeed.

Just 5 more little waves of Minuette degree at most....

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 December

Not much to add today. Sideways mess ended another flat day.  Price action suggests consolidation in a Minute [iv] of C of (Z) of [2] for a final Minute wave [v] likely to come perhaps on the joy of a new year of stock trading and the "January effect" or whatever bull they want to call it.

So we wait for "C".

I must add that the official .618/.382 time ratio for the perfect 5 down/3 up pattern representing P[1] and P[2] will be upon us in 10 trading days which is January 14th.  

I must admit, there are a few lingering indexes which would "look" better if they had another squiggle or so....

1119-1120 is a key support level.  1116 is a must I think.   So until those are challenged or we have a clear impulse pattern either way, we wait some more.

E-minis (update:3:33)

About every index (the NASDAQ does not and is more bullish) reveals this same pattern more or less. So the question is, what is a triangle doing there?  We shall see soon enough. Now that I posted this, it is guaranteed to break upwards.. LOL

This count is not a bad one either. The big B wave contracting triangle doesn't work as well on the SPX. But it all implies the same thing.  1116 is a key marker.

Make or break time for the NDX minis. Could be a triple top...

Triangle is probably out but there are always other counts for the NASDAQ.  Thats how a waver's brain functions I cannot help it. The NASDAQ is a big question mark and may still make a new high within a day or so, and it may be a lonesome high (no other indexes confirming perhaps)  A solid break of 2280 support would make it look bleak.  Who knows. The search for C continues....Now I got to go walk the dog. He is restless...

This count assumes yesterday's Wilshire high was a truncated top.  Hey, what the heck, this is a wave counting website can't a guy put up a bear count anymore? LOL

A violent little triangle? We shall see.

The Wilshire's count is uncertain at this stage. If its a wave [iv] then we have a clear start point for wave [v]. that is not certain though.

The qqqq's seem awfully frisky and determined to make a new high.  The previous high occurred in A/H's.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 December

UPDATE (5pm) Possible squiggle count shows a Minute [iv] triangle forming. This would mean that the market does stay elevated for the next two days.  We have clear markers for this pattern if it fails.

The top may be in today (or yesterday on the Wilshire and NASDAQ).  We have a possible wave count that I posted earlier today

If we require more upside then the next best count is that some kind of Minute [iv] of C is playing out. Thats about the gist of things. However, being that this appears to be a "thrust" move out of an ascending triangle, I am not sure it has another wave up.

Also look at the e-minis. Triple negative divergence on the hourly on the MACD and on the verge of losing support. And I don't think it has corrected enough to "reset".

In my opinion, there is overwhelming, pent-up demand to sell that has been built up in the market to an extreme over the course of the past month or so.

Obviously the New Year is a good bet when that selling will begin in earnest however they may start a few days early. 2 days left until the New Year. This is an extremely dangerous market to be long.

I wouldn't doubt if it crashes very hard early next week. 

Minis (update 1:39am)

Nasdaq has reached the other side of the channel.

I've gotten away from using Log Scale but on a weekly such as this, it is appropriate.

A proposed top based on an extended wave [v].  This aligns with the theme that EWI was showing on the DJIA last night. There definitely appeared to be 5 waves up from yesterday's low and it failed to take out yesterday's high.  We'll see, but at least we can put a count on things at the moment that might make sense.

In my estimation, the blue box area is a key area to watch.

Junk is selling. As opposed to not selling when the rest of the market was gyrating the past 4-5 weeks.

Nasdaq minis haven't taken out yesterday's high yet. The ES did by 2 points.

ZigZag Synergy

Back in early November when we were tracking what we thought was a Minute [ii] retrace back up after a late October and early November nasty drop, there occurred an 18-1 up volume ratio day that took the market back over 1060.  That night, I showed my primary count reverted to a likely triple intermediate zigzag for P2. The "kickoff" internals was too much to ignore. That recognition has paid off somewhat as it allowed us to be patient and let P2 play out.

So since then we have been tracking an "ABC" in blue for the final (Z) wave zigzag to play out.

This triple ZZ count "looks" correct. It has nice form and symmetry in its moves. It also works best with market internals in my opinion.

Just for fun, I threw a double ZZ count in the entire structure to date.  It doesn't look as good but still, as a stand-alone count, its workable.

And here is the simplistic (A)(B)(C) for P2.  I actually like the synergy on this count and how it aligns with the Triple zigzag.

So that is 3 ways to track the move up from March assuming its a P2 sharp rally.  I like the Triple ZZ count because its works the best with market internals (each ZZ had a big "kickoff" up volume move in its A wave and it works nice) and incorporates the most rules and guidelines.

The double ZZ middle chart doesn't work as well anymore and it looks a bit forced on the upper end. The single (A)(B)(C) last chart has a nice rhythm going for the (C) wave in an expanding shape, yet there are problems. And the (A) wave has internal problems. But all in all, there is certain synergy between all 3 charts somewhat. And that is very good for the overall count.

There can be no more than 3 Intermediate Zigzags.  We seek the top of C as that points to the very top.

Soon.  Very soon.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 December

The channeling is starting to really take form on both the NASDAQ and Wilshire. Today's peak is likely either (iii) of [iii] or Minute [iii] itself.  Finally a gap up closed which is a crack in the armor of this rally.

The SPX hit another line today.  1116 is a very important level. The thing that grabs my eye is the RSI may have peaked on this 60 minute chart. And as you can see, that may signal the top of Minute [iii].  Any further upside gains may start to show that telltale negative divergence.

Again the Wilshire chart shows whats happening overall with the entire market.  And its starting to tip its hand.

E-minis (Updated 2:33pm)

The bigger picture looks like this on the NASDAQ. And hey it hit 2295 exactly and that is where C = A using the price low of B....

The channeling on the NASDAQ is pretty decent and should provide some valuable markers. Nasdaq finally went red after 6 days of trading.  Closed gap 1 of 6....up move starting to wane which is what should happen.

Proposed wave count for Minor C.  Good news for bears is that the top of [iii] may be reached soon.  According to this count, the market should tread sideways a bit. The blue box area is key to the whole formation.  In theory, if this count is correct, the blue box area should remain at least partially open until the top of C plays out.

Friday, December 25, 2009


I realize that counting VIX waves is not the best use of EW technology, but of course I like to count just about everything.   But really, the wave counts are not whats important with the VIX, rather pattern recognition and relationships I think is very useful.  TA can be applied to the VIX so can wave patterns.

For those unfamiliar with the VIX, its known as the "fear gauge". A low VIX reading signals complacency and bullishness. A jump in the VIX is bad for the markets and indicates fear and uncertainty.

Many weeks back I suggested that an expanding triangle would result in new VIX lows because that is what the pattern called for.  This foretold the current strength in the markets.

Well it has happened. And now the VIX appears to be morphing into another recognizable pattern: a falling wedge.

Note that there is a long-running positive divergence on the VIX on the weekly. Recall that the Dollar also had this going for it.

Just one way to "count" this falling wedge. There may be other ways and it may not be quite over yet. Again note the long-winded positive divergence:

Note the mini-wedges. We correctly identified these as they happened and helped determine those mini-VIX turning points. Now arguably there is a big wedge occurring. Bigger patterns = bigger results.

You can even see the positive divergence maintained on the hourly chart:

The positive divergence is significant.  If it breaks down completely, then yes, the markets may indeed get to some astronomical market number like 1200+ SPX.

But for now you have to respect these charts and they are bullish VIX which means bearish markets.

Falling wedges are reliable patterns because they show prices getting "compressed".  This compression is like squeezing a spring and there is built-up energy that when the pattern bottoms, there is no longer anyone left to "push" prices downward. So they rebound the opposite direction rather hard.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Big Tech Scared of Trendlines (added 2 IBM ED chart)

Looking at Big Tech, a main theme that stands out is that rising trendlines are a prominent theme. The high beta tech stocks are capable of big either direction of course.  Of course when the trendlines break, they can move down in huge chunks.

Looking at this qqqq weekly you can see what I mean.  Arguably the move from March is one gigantic rising trendline considering we really haven't had a hard down move in tech during any of P2.  It almost suggests that when it does someday break, it will break very hard.  Its as if there is a pent up demand to sell.

I must admit when I look at the qqqq's, I see 3 waves down off the peak from the 2007 high.  Well actually my primary count has the wave (5) as a truncation. In this case it fits because the qqqq's probably fell too hard too fast on its wave (3) of P1 in late 2008.  Still the qqqq's are now past the 61.8% Fib marker and   with a lot of tech stocks hitting all-time highs, you wonder if the qqqq's can take out that 2007 peak price.  Of course if that happened then yes we will get that 1200+ SPX score sometime in 2010.

Hey, I may be a bear but I try to keep an open mind.

But then I look at this chart. And yes, its overbought on the weekly with negative divergence. So considering all things, I think there exists great risk in the long side of the qqqq's versus the short. Particularly since the world is screwed and its a matter of time before it comes undone no matter what Timmy and Benny say.

Ahh, the Apple monthly chart.  Putting in the final squiggles on a long-winded cycle up wave. Massive monthly negative divergence kind of clues us in that this is a primary wave [5] peak.  And of course the psychology fits!  Is not Apple on top of the world?  Can they do no wrong?   Is not Steve Jobs invincible? (I mean no disrespect - he is a decent man by all means!)

And the Apple weekly seems to confirm that within wave [5], wave (5) seems to be playing out.  The weaker RSI is a clue its a wave 5 just as the RSI on the monthly confirms the larger degree wave [5]. Very tight channel.

The Apple daily seems to confirm the larger charts. A wave (5) peak coming. Possible thrust move out of a wave (4) triangle.  Either way, the targets are probably not too far off. See that lower triangle boundary line?  Apple doesn't want to break under that, so it bounced off. P/E: 33.23

Ahh, Amazon, that stock that keeps sticking.  No wave count on this 15 minute chart just some technicals. You can see they bought when the downsloping trendline was broken above.  Now an upsloping trendline is in danger of being broken. And the technical weakness seems to point to it breaking. I have this retrace as a wave 2.  It is a nice wave 2, but now it may be unhealthy again. We shall see.

Here is the daily on AMZN. All time high just like Crapple.  And it appears to be "finished".  The whole top formation is one giant puffy dream cloud.  Sure why not? AMZN will earn a nice .45 cents per your $140 stock. What a bargain!  At an 81 P/E, I want more! We all are pretty sure its gonna come back to earth. But just like any stock, the trick is guessing when.  Well, I think very soon. 

Google is the wildcard of the whole bunch.  A week ago I suggested that it may indeed make a new high within 4-6 months.  Maybe an earnings report and it gaps up like a zillion dollars like it did back in the Spring of 2008. I dunno. There is no weakness on the weekly.

Except for two things actually in my opinion: 1) Volume is waning.  But so what I guess we know its on its final run so that only confirms once it puts in its top, stick a fork in it.

2) More interestingly, take a look at that weekly RSI rising trendline. Google seems to be deathly afraid of breaking it by even a smidgen.  So its worked itself up to oversold on the weekly at above 80 RSI!

Hrmm, what if they pull the plug on the internet? What do you suppose Google's price will do if the US government declares a "time-out" on the free flow of information due to civil unrest?  You wouldn't look so smart for having all that high priced stock in your portfolio then will ya? P/E: 39.95.

BIDU's chart looks a lot like Apple's.  I have BIDU peaking in an all-time high.  And its in a retrace mode.  Maybe I'm wrong on this. I dunno, I ain't buying it at $420 and a 93 P/E.   Its like the First Solar of the Internet.

Again, look, another trendline it is trying to avoid.

Ok I know IBM is in the Dow, but its still tech.  Yet another stock that pushed to an all-time high on this P2. But it is showing technical weakness. And yet another trendline it desperately wants to obey! P/E: 13.46...such is life in the DOW.

One interesting note about IBM. I seen a story the other day where they are getting involved somehow in providing mortgage services. ????  WTF?  These corporations need to stick with what they know. But it smells like insider stuff in cahoots with the Government.  They are all crooked aren't they? Just think of GE.

By the way, although I didn't label IBM above, I think its making an ending diagonal push at the top. It might spasm an overthrow move, but that should be short-lived. The danger is that it is a big ascending triangle. But it may be sloping too much upwards. We'll know in a month. If it is a triangle, its the final move anyways.

Actually this one is probably better. Either way, it implies the same thing.

Well thats about it for now. These stocks got to keep on trucking cause they are scared of their own shadow I guess. A kid with a ruler....