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Monday, March 16, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 March

Today marked the wave 4(5) high. The NASDAQ violated several spots that have been "accepted" as the wave 1(5) low which is a strict rule violation. However, the NASDAQ traced a wave (4) triangle so I am not sure if there is even a wave 1(5) low to violate. As I said before in other posts, its also possible to label wave 1(5) in the NASDAQ at 1456 which was in no danger of being violated. For now, I am ok with it because I was willing for a week to relabel wave 1(5) low at the 1456 spot.
The wave structure down was very impulsive. The NASDAQ led the way. Very clean down impulses. Even the subwaves had 5 wave structures subwaves within which is very positive for this being 5(5). In addition, you can already see a 1.618 Fib expansion on my NASDAQ 1 minute chart. That too is a good sign of impulsivness to the downside. Also everything channeled nicely.
My VIX chart I posted this weekend held up well. the VIX was up even as the market was up. Its on track to hit my VIX "e" wave at 50+. Also the CPC got to a very low point and was consistent with where I expected a wave 4(5) top. My 5 EMA CPC chart is turning back upwards. Another chart I posted this weekend was a Banking Index extended wave (3) chart and it too held up. Its previous sub wave 4 high held so that also is in line with continuing to new lows.
So all in all, except for the NASDAQ and the problems it creates, it appears to be impulsing down for wave 5(5). I am unable to check futures volume at this time so I don't have a good read on down volume candles as compared to up. But either way, down volume should pick up once 750 support breaks. At the very least, a 38% Fib pullback would be around 733 SPX. 730-734 represents a major support area as does 742.

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