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Monday, March 23, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 March 2009

Still no 38% pullback, so still no wave 2 down. As I suspected last week, the 826 gap is a bull target. Its half closed. I relabeled the structure and it seems ok to me. Extended 3rd wave. Notice how the 3's and 4's overlap which is normal in a finishing structure for an extended 3rd wave.

The SPX 1 minute appears to be the last 5th subwave is itself extending which leads me to believe this move up has almost peaked. Of course I am playing with fire on a 1 minute chart with that. But it *looks* right.
Also I have provided an e-mini S&P futures chart (all sessions - including A/H's on a 1 hour scale and you can clearly see its still in a channel up. You'll also see that it is nearing the topside of the channel which should be a pullback spot. Depending on when that hits the upside.
839 is a the next hardcap resistance area and should slow the market push on first strike at least. The gap will have been closed and another nice profit taking area. If 839 is breeched, 850 should stop it cold.
Somewhere in here, a 38% move back is gonna happen. Because a nice gap up was created in the 760's. But.....If I had to guess, window dressing week will keep the market somewhat bouyant if not continued bullishness. I think it sells hard a bit April 1st.

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