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Monday, March 30, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 March

Primary Count: SPX is tracing the (a) wave of an ABC 5-3-5 zig zag of Minor Wave 2. Eventual lower target for wave 2 would be at least a 50-61% Fib retrace or 730-749. Based on the (a) wave length, 725 is possible. You can see I only have subwave iii of (a) of 2 ending at today's low. That means subwave iv up is tracing out in A/H's and tommorow's open perhaps. But after resistance is hit, it should selloff down to close the gap on a final subwave v of (a). Then the (b) wave should bounce back toward the previous subwave iv spot (wherever that is - maybe 790+) or a 38% retrace referenced from the subwave iii start of 825.

Alternate Count: SPX is tracing a (c) wave of an ABC expanded flat for wave 2. (This is EWI's primary count). That would imply once the 768-772 gap closes, then the market gets all bullish again.

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