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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Fibonnaci Calculations for the Move Up

I have reason in EW terms to label the move the way I did in tonight's update. I could have seen this relationship yesterday but I overlooked it and missed it.

In impulse wave relationships, wave 3 is usually the strongest and usually is the wave that extends. It seems to be the case here. A healthy extended wave 3 usually expands the price of wave 1 by a Fibonacci relationship of 1.618. This chart has nice Fibonacci relationships between all the subwaves of an extended 3rd wave (which is labeled as green Minute [iii]).

So I took all the noise off my 30 minute chart and now you can see wave relationships. What works nicely is where I have black iii labeled is the highest volume of the rally so far which fits into a "third of a third" wave which is where the power kicks in. So if this labeling is correct, the bounce off of 791 is just part of a subwave 1 to a higher spot. Once again, if my labeling is correct and green [v] = length of green [i] then the upper target is 858. If green [v] is .618 times green [i] then your looking at about 832 tops.

So we'll see. But that was why I labeled the wave the way I did.
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