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Monday, March 30, 2009

SPX 1 Minute

EDIT: 8:45 PM: This count I have is interesting because Black wave i only traveled 17.41 points. Since Black iii was VERY extended, we can expect Black V to only travel maybe .618 x Black i. 17.41 x .618 = 10.75 The *price* top of my black iv is 790.45

790.45 - 10.75 = 779.7

Today's low was 779.81

EDIT: 8:30 PM Also I think that since black i was only a small drop, and black iii was a very extended drop, labeling today's low as black iii may be asking too much. That would be asking black v to drop even more to close a gap at 768. So that is also why the B wave may be starting.

I hadn't had time to look at the intraday until now and the little finishing wedge makes me think a B wave is starting and the (a) wave finished at the low today. How high would a B wave retrace before we can consider its still to be a B wave and not something else? Guideline is 38% for starters but of course it can go 50% or more. It also should *look* right. Resistance should kill it somewhere. If not somewhere in the 790's then 803-804.
There is one other interpretation of the 1 minute SPX and that has black iii ending at the low today (I just shifted the 3's and 4's and 5's over one which might make sense) which means (a) hasn't even bottomed yet. But the little wedge at the bottom today makes me think (a) might be over. I really cannot be sure. I am trying to dissect the 1 minutes and this can be hazardous although this structure down has very nice form. We shall see by morning.
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