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Thursday, March 26, 2009

The SPX upper channel ~ duh!

After posting this chart tonight in my update and stating that the move up was likely over near here in the 830's, I just noticed the channel I drew corresponds exactly with my upside surprise target of 856 or so. And since futures have not been selling (the red candles are light volume) and show some staying power, perhaps today's ending diagonal is just a 1-2, 1-2 wave of the last green [v] up to 856 or so (this is where my green wave [v] = price move of green wave [i] - a normal occurrence when wave [iii] is extended). That's the problem with intraday 1 minute charts that start moves, perhaps you are only seeing half the move.

The deal breaker is 839. Any move above that mark is signalling perhaps a move to the upper target of 850-856. And accordingly any move over 839 would invalidate my intraday chart showing an ending diagonal. I guess it would make sense to rally to this channel. I thought of it before but it grabs my attention now.

But 839 is also very significant resistance and it hasn't even moved past 833 yet. So that, along with the intraday pattern I suggested the move up takes a break. I just cannot see it powering thru 839 first try but...."upside surprise" is the Spring/Summer theme for Primary wave 2. I think EWI used that term and I kind of like it.
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