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Monday, April 20, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 April





Primary Count: Market is tracing an Intermediate (X) wave back toward the start point area of the ending diagonal which is 779.
Today reminded me a lot like this past December 1st. Hard morning drop with a steady drizzle all day. What we are missing though is the last subwave "c" wave down to zig zag bottom. So I have speculated a bit that this first zig zag down will bottom at 810 closing the gap or if it bounces to resistance at 840-845, then it will find support above the gap at around 815.
There is a huge gap in the 820's and those usually get filled.
The ending diagonal that we were discussing all weekend collapsed as per Elliott Wave theory in rather dramatic fashion. All that debate about what is the "uncle" point in case the market had one last spurt left was all for naught. Monday following OPEX...I should of guessed immediate selling was the order of the day since last week was up. I had forgotten about OPEX I usually don't.
As far as the bottom of the (X) wave, I have no timeline. I can only go by Elliott Wave theory and in the Elliott Wave Principle, page 38 states: "A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began (779) and typically much further."
So there ya have it.

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