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Friday, April 3, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 April




Primary Count (has changed): SPX is in the process of finishing Minor wave 1 or A to peak. Today's wave action forced my hand to changed my primary count. This count has it moving to 857 and then begin a Minor wave 2 retrace back toward 768 gap over a period of days/week
Alternate Count: SPX is finishing a subwave [i] of 3 of A move up. This implies after an 857 peak a correction back to the previous subwave 4 (828) would occur and then the "third of a third" will start to unfold blasting the market toward 875-890-900 area.

Second Alternate Count: SPX will immediately begin a wave [c] to sub 768 (gap) on Monday. As you can see if this second alternate is to happen, a move down immediately Monday is required. Why? Because 845 was my "count" marker. A violation of that violates my expanded flat [b] wave I showed in yesterday's update.

Commentary: I have been throwing out a lot of themes as of late. I like to spark ideas and record my thoughts in these posts. One post I did last week was called http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/03/spx-upper-channel-duh.html This showed the huge channel lines created from the previous intermediate wave (4) triangle.

Well its getting close to the upper channel and the intraday waves exactly match this target. Look at both of my charts combined and you will see projection. That target is 857 (yes, up, first) SPX or so. And that should happen early next week if it is the right interpretation. Will this be the spot where a pullback occurs to close the gap at 768 (or get close?)

The last chart I provide is the e-minis futures. I don't often provide this but I always keep my eye on futures. What is noteworthy is that the MACD and Full stochs, on a yearly daily chart, are all getting squished to the upside. A move up to 857 will put them even more near the ceiling. Does a big pullback have to happen? No, but my point is that stocks and even e-minis are really pushing things and is why I favor a correction back toward the gap at 768 after the upper channel line I showed on the 60 minute chart is reached.




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