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Friday, April 3, 2009

The SPX Pathing Possibilities

This chart kind of shows how my little pea brain is working the possibilities of wave counts. I have obviously been clinging to my count that the SPX traces back and close the 768 gap for Minor wave 2. I am like a dog chewing on a bone with this. I am also almost at the "breaking point" (mentally that is - I am nearly 100% cash in my trading account - no time to daytrade too much with my day job. However my measly 401K has been long since sub 700 and doing nicely) . Although I have serious permabear leanings, (hey I link to Kliguy and love his site - http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/ ) I try not to let that interfere with the direction of the "tape".

Monday/Tuesday will likely reveal the market's hand on a major direction for the short term. Either wave 2 is over at 779 (that occurred earlier) and its a wave 3 (or C) or it will play out in a deep retrace to close multiple gaps in a wave 2 down. If minor wave 2 has already indeed finished, the next major move is toward 875 area and beyond in a wave 3 (or C) higher, not sub 800. Thats the way I interpert things and I still cling to the notion of a last subwave 800 move for minor 2. But I am not married to that idea. The wave structure is quickly reaching the point where I can no longer keep predicting a deep retrace. But for now the structure still supports the move.

The fact that I am almost capitulating on this thought process of a Minor wave 2 back to 768 makes me think its going to happen after a last push up Monday. So I will keep posting this possibility until it is no longer in the "count".

Remember the SPX pushed up a full 186 points in 2002 prior to pulling back in a 38% move. So far that is the case here too. At 857 the SPX will have advanced 190 points without a 38% retrace. So I am not ready to cave in yet on the idea of a significant retrace (over a period of days, etc) My count is valid for this being a finishing move up.

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