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Thursday, June 4, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 June

The market seems to be following my count almost perfectly last couple of days. I called the 949 top the A wave top. The retrace back to 923 as a B wave and now the market has traced a leading diagonal in the wave [i] position of the final C wave up leg which should be 5 Minute-sized waves in all to P2 peak. The next set of logical moves is a dip down to 934 support and then a power move over 950 in the meat of a Minute wave [iii]. Maybe they gap it high over Monday.....

The SPX is working itself into position perfectly for a power Minute wave [iii] move over 950.

The 950 level represents a key pyschological resistance area for a LOT of traders, media etc. I happen to think a break over 950 will produce the "euphoria" and good new stories that will flood the media once this happens. It will indicate the top is near and everyone in the media should be on the bull bandwagon. I think 9000 Dow is the real target and will be hit.

The alternate is my chart here:

The alternate is a bearish move down to 914 support and a hard, hard rebound after that.

However I *think* this P2 wave should end in grand fashion pyschologically. A decisive move over 950 should do the trick and be one last hard squeeze of the shorts. Call it a gut feeling.

I think retail is powering this final leg. Just a hunch (from offhand 401K conversations I hear lately at work)

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